TY - JOUR
T1 - Effects of the energy transition on environmental impacts of cobalt supply
T2 - A prospective life cycle assessment study on future supply of cobalt
AU - van der Meide, Marc
AU - Harpprecht, Carina
AU - Northey, Stephen
AU - Yang, Yongxiang
AU - Steubing, Bernhard
PY - 2022
Y1 - 2022
N2 - Cobalt is considered a key metal in the energy transition, and demand is expected to increase substantially by 2050. This demand is for an important part because of cobalt use in (electric vehicle) batteries. This study investigated the environmental impacts of the production of cobalt and how these could change in the future. We modeled possible future developments in the cobalt supply chain using four variables: (v1) ore grade, (v2) primary market shares, (v3) secondary market shares, and (v4) energy transition. These variables are driven by two metal-demand scenarios, which we derived from scenarios from the shared socioeconomic pathways, a “business as usual” (BAU) and a “sustainable development” (SD) scenario. We estimated future environmental impacts of cobalt supply by 2050 under these two scenarios using prospective life cycle assessment. We found that the environmental impacts of cobalt production could likely increase and are strongly dependent on the recycling market share and the overall energy transition. The results showed that under the BAU scenario, climate change impacts per unit of cobalt production could increase by 9% by 2050 compared to 2010, while they decreased by 28% under the SD scenario. This comes at a trade-off to other impacts like human toxicity, which could strongly increase in the SD scenario (112% increase) compared to the BAU scenario (71% increase). Furthermore, we found that the energy transition could offset most of the increase of climate change impacts induced by a near doubling in cobalt demand in 2050 between the two scenarios.
AB - Cobalt is considered a key metal in the energy transition, and demand is expected to increase substantially by 2050. This demand is for an important part because of cobalt use in (electric vehicle) batteries. This study investigated the environmental impacts of the production of cobalt and how these could change in the future. We modeled possible future developments in the cobalt supply chain using four variables: (v1) ore grade, (v2) primary market shares, (v3) secondary market shares, and (v4) energy transition. These variables are driven by two metal-demand scenarios, which we derived from scenarios from the shared socioeconomic pathways, a “business as usual” (BAU) and a “sustainable development” (SD) scenario. We estimated future environmental impacts of cobalt supply by 2050 under these two scenarios using prospective life cycle assessment. We found that the environmental impacts of cobalt production could likely increase and are strongly dependent on the recycling market share and the overall energy transition. The results showed that under the BAU scenario, climate change impacts per unit of cobalt production could increase by 9% by 2050 compared to 2010, while they decreased by 28% under the SD scenario. This comes at a trade-off to other impacts like human toxicity, which could strongly increase in the SD scenario (112% increase) compared to the BAU scenario (71% increase). Furthermore, we found that the energy transition could offset most of the increase of climate change impacts induced by a near doubling in cobalt demand in 2050 between the two scenarios.
KW - cobalt
KW - energy transition
KW - future background scenario
KW - industrial ecology
KW - mining
KW - prospective life cycle assessment
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85127510983&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1111/jiec.13258
DO - 10.1111/jiec.13258
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85127510983
SN - 1088-1980
VL - 26
SP - 1631
EP - 1645
JO - Journal of Industrial Ecology
JF - Journal of Industrial Ecology
IS - 5
ER -