Efficient Bayesian calibration of aerodynamic wind turbine models using surrogate modeling

Benjamin Sanderse, V.V. Dighe*, Koen Boorsma, Gerard Schepers

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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This paper presents an efficient strategy for the Bayesian calibration of parameters of aerodynamic wind turbine models. The strategy relies on constructing a surrogate model (based on adaptive polynomial chaos expansions), which is used to perform both parameter selection using global sensitivity analysis and parameter calibration with Bayesian inference. The effectiveness of this approach is shown in two test cases: calibration of airfoil polars based on the measurements from the DANAERO MW experiments and calibration of five yaw model parameters based on measurements on the New MEXICO turbine in yawed conditions. In both cases, the calibrated models yield results much closer to the measurement data, and in addition they are equipped with an estimate of the uncertainty in the predictions.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)759-781
JournalWind Energy Science
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 2022


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