Energy transition scenarios in the strategic freight model BasGoed

Bart Wesseling, M.A. de Bok, John Spruijt, Omar Usmani, Thijmen van Bree

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Abstract

A transition from the use of conventional energy carriers to more sustainable alternatives is an important policy objective to mitigate the impact of our energy consumption on earth’s climate. This transition involves changes in the use of commodities in freight transport. This paper addresses how we improved the strategic freight transport model BasGoed for the Netherlands to better forecast the impact of energy transition scenarios on freight transport demand. BasGoed is developed as a tool for supporting policy decisions and produces forecasts for road, rail, barge and sea shipping. These forecasts are inputs for sectoral models of road, rail and barge transport.

Energy carriers such as coal, lignite, crude oil and fossil fuels make up for a substantial part of all freight transport in the Netherlands. The increase or decline in transport demand for these commodities is closely correlated to the speed of the energy transition. The uncertainty in future growth levels of energy carriers is one of the larger uncertainties in forecasting future freight demands, especially for rail and barge transport because of high market-shares for energy carriers.

In De Bok et al. (2018a) a broad range of sensitivity runs for BasGoed is presented. The results showed that the assumptions in the energy transition scenario have the biggest impact on forecasted freight transport demand.

The strategic transport model BasGoed has been improved to better capture the outcomes of the energy transition to be able to assess policy measures related to reducing CO2 emissions. The global mix of energy carriers in energy production are our starting point in the input scenario. These global targets are translated into changes in economic structure (production and consumption of commodities by economic sector) using the outcomes of Energy System Simulation model (ENSYSI). This model is developed by the Dutch Environmental assessment agency (PBL) and provides quantitative information regarding developments in energy demand and production between 2010 and 2050.

In section 2 of this paper an overview of literature is given. Section 3 describes the policy context. Section 4 describes the modelling framework BasGoed. The different parts of energy transition scenario are given in section 5. Section 6 presents the BasGoed results from the energy transition scenario. This paper ends with a conclusion and discussion section.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationEuropean Transport Conference Online 2020
PublisherAssociation for European Transport (AET)
Number of pages16
Publication statusPublished - 2020
EventEuropean Transport Conference 2020 - Online event
Duration: 9 Sep 202011 Sep 2020

Conference

ConferenceEuropean Transport Conference 2020
Abbreviated titleETC 2020
Period9/09/2011/09/20

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