Estimating loss of life caused by dam breaches based on the simulation of floods routing and evacuation potential of population at risk

Wei Ge, Yutie Jiao, Meimei Wu*, Zongkun Li, Te Wang, Wei Li, Yadong Zhang, Weixing Gao, Pieter van Gelder

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

36 Citations (Scopus)
86 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Dam breaches often have catastrophic consequences in downstream areas. Hydrodynamic factors and the evacuation potential of the population at risk (PAR) have significant impacts on the loss of life (LOL) caused by dam breaches. However, the existing comprehensive evaluation models have not conducted in-depth research on the evacuation potential of populations. Thus, limited guidance is available for relevant departments to formulate emergency plans to reduce the potential LOL. Therefore, a new comprehensive evaluation model was proposed in this study. According to the relevant references and disaster theory, the main influencing factors and the process through which the LOL is caused by dam breaches were determined. The specific occurrence process was divided into six stages: a dam breach causes flood, the flood puts the PAR, the PAR complete the preparation work, the PAR evacuate, the un-evacuated population shelter themselves inside buildings, and flood causes the death of the exposed population. To calculate the LOL, the parameters relevant at each stage were defined. Furthermore, the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System, Geographic Information System, and related materials were used to simulate the flood routing and evacuation potential of the PAR, quantifying the parameters in the model. The model was applied to 14 towns in the downstream areas of the Luhun Reservoir in Henan Province, China, and its accuracy was verified by comparing the results obtained from the two existing models. In addition, the specific suggestions for reducing the potential LOL were proposed based on the results of the simulation.

Original languageEnglish
Article number128059
Pages (from-to)11
JournalJournal of Hydrology
Volume612
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2022

Bibliographical note

Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care
Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.

Keywords

  • Dam breach
  • Disaster-causing mechanism
  • Emergency plan
  • Evacuation potential
  • Loss of life

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