Estimating NOx LOTOS-EUROS CTM Emission Parameters over the Northwest of South America through 4DEnVar TROPOMI NO2 Assimilation

In this work, we present the development of a 4D-Ensemble-Variational (4DEnVar) data assimilation technique to estimate NOx top-down emissions using the regional chemical transport model LOTOS-EUROS with the NO2 observations from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). The assimilation was performed for a domain in the northwest of South America centered over Colombia, and includes regions in Panama, Venezuela and Ecuador. In the 4DEnVar approach, the implementation of the linearized and adjoint model are avoided by generating an ensemble of model simulations and by using this ensemble to approximate the nonlinear model and observation operator. Emission correction parameters’ locations were defined for positions where the model simulations showed significant discrepancies with the satellite observations. Using the 4DEnVar data assimilation method, optimal emission parameters for the LOTOS-EUROS model were estimated, allowing for corrections in areas where ground observations are unavailable and the region’s emission inventories do not correctly reflect the current emissions activities. The analyzed 4DEnVar concentrations were compared with the ground measurements of one local air quality monitoring network and the data retrieved by the satellite instrument Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). The assimilation had a low impact on NO2 surface concentrations reducing the Mean Fractional Bias from 0.45 to 0.32, primordially enhancing the spatial and temporal variations in the simulated NO2 fields.