Estimating the state of epidemics spreading with graph neural networks

Abhishek Tomy, Matteo Razzanelli, Francesco Di Lauro, Daniela Rus, Cosimo Della Santina*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

8 Citations (Scopus)
11 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

When an epidemic spreads into a population, it is often impractical or impossible to continuously monitor all subjects involved. As an alternative, we propose using algorithmic solutions that can infer the state of the whole population from a limited number of measures. We analyze the capability of deep neural networks to solve this challenging task. We base our proposed architecture on Graph Convolutional Neural Networks. As such, it can reason on the effect of the underlying social network structure, which is recognized as the main component in spreading an epidemic. The proposed architecture can reconstruct the entire state with accuracy above 70%, as proven by two scenarios modeled on the CoVid-19 pandemic. The first is a generic homogeneous population, and the second is a toy model of the Boston metropolitan area. Note that no retraining of the architecture is necessary when changing the model.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)249-263
JournalNonlinear Dynamics
Volume109
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2022

Bibliographical note

Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care
Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.

Keywords

  • CoVid-19
  • Epidemics
  • Network dynamics
  • Nonlinear inference
  • State estimation

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