Evaluating the Impact of New Technology Deployment on Future Congestion of LV Distribution Grids

The electrification of end-energy use and the increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) are significantly reshaping the landscape of low voltage (LV) distribution grids. However, many LV networks were originally designed without considering these transformative factors, potentially leading to congestion and overloads. Assessing the hosting capacity of these networks has become crucial, as it quantifies the ability of the distribution network to accommodate additional DERs while maintaining stable and reliable operations. In this context, we introduce the concept of remaining hosting capacity as a metric to evaluate LV distribution networks' capacity to absorb additional DERs, considering the existing DER deployment. We present two simulation methodologies: Gaussian mixture model-based stochastic power flow simulations that deliver a detailed network analysis, including specific current and voltage data but require substantial computational resources, and a data resampling simulation methodology that employs detailed load and DER profiles to rapidly approximate load demands at the transformer level. Furthermore, we conduct a sensitivity analysis for different levels of DER penetration to calculate the networks' capability to accommodate more DERs. The results obtained illustrate the effectiveness of GM models and the data resampling simulation methodology proposed in this work. The remaining hosting capacity concept provides essential insights into the networks' capabilities to accommodate additional DERs in the future, facilitating informed decisions for both Distribution System Operators (DSOs) and DER developers regarding grid operation, necessary upgrades, and sustainable DER expansion.