Evaluating the impact of waiting time reliability on route choice using smart card data

Sanmay Shelat*, Oded Cats, Niels van Oort, J. W.C. van Lint

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)
68 Downloads (Pure)


Unreliable waiting times may cause frustration and anxiety amongst public transport travellers. Although the effect of travel time reliability has been studied extensively, most studies have used stated preferences which have disadvantages, such as an inherent hypothetical bias, or have analysed revealed preferences for road traffic. Here, we derive revealed preferences from passively collected smart card data to analyse the role of waiting time reliability in public transport route choice. We study waiting time reliability as regular and irregular deviations from scheduled values, examining a number of indicators for the latter. Behaviour in morning peak and off-peak hours is contrasted and differences in reliability coefficients for different modes in the network, and for origin and transfer stops are reported. Results from The Hague indicate relatively low reliability ratios with travellers perceiving a 5-minute standard deviation in realised waiting times as an extra 1–5.6 min of planned waiting time.

Original languageEnglish
Article number2028929
Number of pages19
JournalTransportmetrica A: Transport Science
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 2022


  • Public transport
  • reliability
  • revealed preferences
  • smart card data
  • waiting time


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