Expert judgment in life-cycle degradation and maintenance modelling for steel bridges

A Kosgodagan, Oswaldo Morales Napoles, J Maljaars, W Courage

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Abstract

Markov-based models for predicting deterioration for civil infrastructures are widely recognized as suitable tools addressing this mechanism. The objective of this paper is to provide insights regarding a network of orthotropic steel bridges in terms of degradation. Consequently, a model combining a dynamic Bayesian network and a Markov chain is first introduced that builds up the network in a concise way. In an attempt to represent a network composed of two general classes of orthotropic steel bridges, the classical method of structured expert judgment is carried out as a quantification procedure. The first objective is to indirectly elicit transition probabilities for a Markov chain that probabilistically describes how each type bridge temporally deteriorates. Second, experts are asked to provide estimates on required conditional probabilities related to the Bayesian network. An in-depth analysis of the results is presented so that remarks and observations are subsequently pointed out and, finally conclusions are drawn.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationIALCCE 2016: The Fifth International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, 16-19 September 2016
Subtitle of host publicationLife-Cycle of Engineering Systems: Emphasis on Sustainable Civil Infrastructure
EditorsJaap Bakker, Dan M. Frangopol, Klaas van Breugel
PublisherCRC Press
Pages2130–2137
ISBN (Electronic)978-1-4987-7701-8
ISBN (Print)978-1-138-02847-0
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2016
Event5th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Engineering: Life-Cycle of Engineering Systems: Emphasis on Sustainable Civil Infrastructure - Delft, Netherlands
Duration: 16 Oct 201620 Oct 2016
Conference number: 5
http://www.ialcce2016.org/

Conference

Conference5th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Engineering
Abbreviated title IALCCE 2016
CountryNetherlands
CityDelft
Period16/10/1620/10/16
Internet address

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  • Cite this

    Kosgodagan, A., Morales Napoles, O., Maljaars, J., & Courage, W. (2016). Expert judgment in life-cycle degradation and maintenance modelling for steel bridges. In J. Bakker, D. M. Frangopol, & K. van Breugel (Eds.), IALCCE 2016: The Fifth International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, 16-19 September 2016: Life-Cycle of Engineering Systems: Emphasis on Sustainable Civil Infrastructure (pp. 2130–2137). CRC Press. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315375175-313