Exploring Regional Agglomeration Dynamics in Face of Climate-Driven Hazards: Insights from an Agent-Based Computational Economic Model

Alessandro Taberna*, Tatiana Filatova, Andrea Roventini, Francesco Lamperti

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volumeConference contributionScientificpeer-review

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By 2050 about 80% of the world’s population is expected to live in cities. Cities offer spatial economic advantages that create agglomeration forces and innovation that foster concentration of economic activities, but for historic reasons cluster along coasts and rivers that are prone to climate-driven flooding. To explore tradeoffs between agglomeration economies and the changing face of hazards we present an evolutionary economics model with heterogeneous agents. Without climate-induced shocks, the model demonstrates how advantageous transport costs that the waterfront offers lead to the self-reinforcing and path-dependent agglomeration process in coastal areas. The likelihood and speed of such agglomeration strongly depend on the transport cost and magnitude of climate-driven shocks. In particular, shocks of different size have non-linear impact on output growth and spatial distribution of economic activities.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAdvances in Social Simulation - Proceedings of the 16th Social Simulation Conference
EditorsMarcin Czupryna, Bogumił Kamiński
Number of pages16
ISBN (Print)9783030928421
Publication statusPublished - 2022
Event16th Social Simulation Conference, SSC 2021 - Kraków, Poland
Duration: 20 Sept 202124 Sept 2021

Publication series

NameSpringer Proceedings in Complexity
ISSN (Print)2213-8684
ISSN (Electronic)2213-8692


Conference16th Social Simulation Conference, SSC 2021

Bibliographical note

Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care
Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.


  • Agent-based model
  • Agglomeration
  • Climate
  • Flood
  • Migration
  • Path-dependency
  • Relocation
  • Shock


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