Exploring Regional Agglomeration Dynamics in Face of Climate-Driven Hazards: Insights from an Agent-Based Computational Economic Model

Alessandro Taberna; Tatiana Filatova; Andrea Roventini; Francesco Lamperti

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-92843-8_12

Exploring Regional Agglomeration Dynamics in Face of Climate-Driven Hazards: Insights from an Agent-Based Computational Economic Model

Alessandro Taberna^*, Tatiana Filatova, Andrea Roventini, Francesco Lamperti

^*Corresponding author for this work

Policy Analysis

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volume › Conference contribution › Scientific › peer-review

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Abstract

By 2050 about 80% of the world’s population is expected to live in cities. Cities offer spatial economic advantages that create agglomeration forces and innovation that foster concentration of economic activities, but for historic reasons cluster along coasts and rivers that are prone to climate-driven flooding. To explore tradeoffs between agglomeration economies and the changing face of hazards we present an evolutionary economics model with heterogeneous agents. Without climate-induced shocks, the model demonstrates how advantageous transport costs that the waterfront offers lead to the self-reinforcing and path-dependent agglomeration process in coastal areas. The likelihood and speed of such agglomeration strongly depend on the transport cost and magnitude of climate-driven shocks. In particular, shocks of different size have non-linear impact on output growth and spatial distribution of economic activities.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Advances in Social Simulation - Proceedings of the 16th Social Simulation Conference
Editors	Marcin Czupryna, Bogumił Kamiński
Publisher	Springer
Pages	145-160
Number of pages	16
ISBN (Print)	9783030928421
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-92843-8_12
Publication status	Published - 2022
Event	16th Social Simulation Conference, SSC 2021 - Kraków, Poland Duration: 20 Sept 2021 → 24 Sept 2021

Publication series

Name	Springer Proceedings in Complexity
ISSN (Print)	2213-8684
ISSN (Electronic)	2213-8692

Conference

Conference	16th Social Simulation Conference, SSC 2021
Country/Territory	Poland
City	Kraków
Period	20/09/21 → 24/09/21

Bibliographical note

Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care
Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.

Keywords

Agent-based model
Agglomeration
Climate
Flood
Migration
Path-dependency
Relocation
Shock

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1007/978-3-030-92843-8_12

978-3-030-92843-8_12Final published version, 384 KB

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Taberna, A., Filatova, T., Roventini, A., & Lamperti, F. (2022). Exploring Regional Agglomeration Dynamics in Face of Climate-Driven Hazards: Insights from an Agent-Based Computational Economic Model. In M. Czupryna, & B. Kamiński (Eds.), Advances in Social Simulation - Proceedings of the 16th Social Simulation Conference (pp. 145-160). (Springer Proceedings in Complexity). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-92843-8_12

Taberna, Alessandro ; Filatova, Tatiana ; Roventini, Andrea et al. / Exploring Regional Agglomeration Dynamics in Face of Climate-Driven Hazards : Insights from an Agent-Based Computational Economic Model. Advances in Social Simulation - Proceedings of the 16th Social Simulation Conference. editor / Marcin Czupryna ; Bogumił Kamiński. Springer, 2022. pp. 145-160 (Springer Proceedings in Complexity).

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title = "Exploring Regional Agglomeration Dynamics in Face of Climate-Driven Hazards: Insights from an Agent-Based Computational Economic Model",

abstract = "By 2050 about 80% of the world{\textquoteright}s population is expected to live in cities. Cities offer spatial economic advantages that create agglomeration forces and innovation that foster concentration of economic activities, but for historic reasons cluster along coasts and rivers that are prone to climate-driven flooding. To explore tradeoffs between agglomeration economies and the changing face of hazards we present an evolutionary economics model with heterogeneous agents. Without climate-induced shocks, the model demonstrates how advantageous transport costs that the waterfront offers lead to the self-reinforcing and path-dependent agglomeration process in coastal areas. The likelihood and speed of such agglomeration strongly depend on the transport cost and magnitude of climate-driven shocks. In particular, shocks of different size have non-linear impact on output growth and spatial distribution of economic activities.",

keywords = "Agent-based model, Agglomeration, Climate, Flood, Migration, Path-dependency, Relocation, Shock",

author = "Alessandro Taberna and Tatiana Filatova and Andrea Roventini and Francesco Lamperti",

note = "Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.; 16th Social Simulation Conference, SSC 2021 ; Conference date: 20-09-2021 Through 24-09-2021",

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Taberna, A , Filatova, T, Roventini, A & Lamperti, F 2022, Exploring Regional Agglomeration Dynamics in Face of Climate-Driven Hazards: Insights from an Agent-Based Computational Economic Model. in M Czupryna & B Kamiński (eds), Advances in Social Simulation - Proceedings of the 16th Social Simulation Conference. Springer Proceedings in Complexity, Springer, pp. 145-160, 16th Social Simulation Conference, SSC 2021, Kraków, Poland, 20/09/21. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-92843-8_12

Exploring Regional Agglomeration Dynamics in Face of Climate-Driven Hazards: Insights from an Agent-Based Computational Economic Model. / Taberna, Alessandro ; Filatova, Tatiana; Roventini, Andrea et al.
Advances in Social Simulation - Proceedings of the 16th Social Simulation Conference. ed. / Marcin Czupryna; Bogumił Kamiński. Springer, 2022. p. 145-160 (Springer Proceedings in Complexity).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volume › Conference contribution › Scientific › peer-review

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AU - Taberna, Alessandro

AU - Filatova, Tatiana

AU - Roventini, Andrea

AU - Lamperti, Francesco

N1 - Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.

PY - 2022

Y1 - 2022

N2 - By 2050 about 80% of the world’s population is expected to live in cities. Cities offer spatial economic advantages that create agglomeration forces and innovation that foster concentration of economic activities, but for historic reasons cluster along coasts and rivers that are prone to climate-driven flooding. To explore tradeoffs between agglomeration economies and the changing face of hazards we present an evolutionary economics model with heterogeneous agents. Without climate-induced shocks, the model demonstrates how advantageous transport costs that the waterfront offers lead to the self-reinforcing and path-dependent agglomeration process in coastal areas. The likelihood and speed of such agglomeration strongly depend on the transport cost and magnitude of climate-driven shocks. In particular, shocks of different size have non-linear impact on output growth and spatial distribution of economic activities.

AB - By 2050 about 80% of the world’s population is expected to live in cities. Cities offer spatial economic advantages that create agglomeration forces and innovation that foster concentration of economic activities, but for historic reasons cluster along coasts and rivers that are prone to climate-driven flooding. To explore tradeoffs between agglomeration economies and the changing face of hazards we present an evolutionary economics model with heterogeneous agents. Without climate-induced shocks, the model demonstrates how advantageous transport costs that the waterfront offers lead to the self-reinforcing and path-dependent agglomeration process in coastal areas. The likelihood and speed of such agglomeration strongly depend on the transport cost and magnitude of climate-driven shocks. In particular, shocks of different size have non-linear impact on output growth and spatial distribution of economic activities.

KW - Agent-based model

KW - Agglomeration

KW - Climate

KW - Flood

KW - Migration

KW - Path-dependency

KW - Relocation

KW - Shock

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BT - Advances in Social Simulation - Proceedings of the 16th Social Simulation Conference

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PB - Springer

Y2 - 20 September 2021 through 24 September 2021

ER -

Taberna A , Filatova T, Roventini A, Lamperti F. Exploring Regional Agglomeration Dynamics in Face of Climate-Driven Hazards: Insights from an Agent-Based Computational Economic Model. In Czupryna M, Kamiński B, editors, Advances in Social Simulation - Proceedings of the 16th Social Simulation Conference. Springer. 2022. p. 145-160. (Springer Proceedings in Complexity). doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-92843-8_12

Exploring Regional Agglomeration Dynamics in Face of Climate-Driven Hazards: Insights from an Agent-Based Computational Economic Model

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

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