Exploring the impacts of an emission based truck charge in the Netherlands

In this paper we explore the possible impacts of a distance- and emission-class based truck charge in The Netherlands. Earlier studies suggest that shifts may occur towards heavy vehicles, due to the relative inefficiency of lighter vehicles types. However, these studies have not taken into account the effects of changes in shipment size, as a response to pricing measures. Also, these studies have not considered emission-class dependent charges. Thirdly, no empirical disaggregate models or studies are available for the Netherlands for this problem. We present a discrete choice model for the joint choice of vehicle type and shipment size, estimated on a large dataset of disaggregate carrier freight trip data. The model explains variations in vehicle type choice for different transport purposes and contexts (e.g. commodity type, long-haul, urban transport, to/from logistic nodes). The analysis of emission based truck charging schemes shows that substitution towards low emission vehicles can be expected within the same vehicle class. It is also not likely that the truck charge will lead to a significant increase of shipment sizes or to substitution between vehicle types: a distance based truck charge increases transport costs but inventory costs restrain a shift to larger shipment sizes. This result points to a limited capability of supply chains to absorb transport cost increases by logistics re-organisation.