TY - JOUR
T1 - Quantitative assessment of monitoring strategies for conformance verification of CO2 storage projects
AU - Barros, E. G.D.
AU - Leeuwenburgh, O.
AU - Szklarz, S. P.
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - We propose a quantitative model-based workflow for conformance verification of CO2 storage projects. Bayesian inference is applied to update an ensemble of simulation models that capture prior uncertainty based on mismatches with measured data. Conformance assessments are derived by comparison of updated model predictions with storage permit requirements and confidence criteria. Two examples, one conceptual and one based on a real candidate storage site, are provided in which the quantitative workflow is applied to the a priori assessment of candidate monitoring strategies. The examples illustrate the limitations of pressure monitoring in the presence of realistic subsurface uncertainties, and the potential for cost saving by informed design of geophysical monitoring surveys. Approximate methods are discussed that could make the workflow also applicable for (quasi) real-time conformance monitoring.
AB - We propose a quantitative model-based workflow for conformance verification of CO2 storage projects. Bayesian inference is applied to update an ensemble of simulation models that capture prior uncertainty based on mismatches with measured data. Conformance assessments are derived by comparison of updated model predictions with storage permit requirements and confidence criteria. Two examples, one conceptual and one based on a real candidate storage site, are provided in which the quantitative workflow is applied to the a priori assessment of candidate monitoring strategies. The examples illustrate the limitations of pressure monitoring in the presence of realistic subsurface uncertainties, and the potential for cost saving by informed design of geophysical monitoring surveys. Approximate methods are discussed that could make the workflow also applicable for (quasi) real-time conformance monitoring.
KW - Conformance verification
KW - Monitoring design
KW - Quantitative workflow
KW - Risk management
KW - Subsurface CO2 storage
KW - Uncertainty management
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85111051274&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.ijggc.2021.103403
DO - 10.1016/j.ijggc.2021.103403
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85111051274
SN - 1750-5836
VL - 110
SP - 1
EP - 18
JO - International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control
JF - International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control
M1 - 103403
ER -