Failure anticipation scheme in distribution systems based on wave distortions and Montecarlo methods

Anticipating failures is vital for maintaining a reliable power supply. Advanced measurement devices in the grid generate vast data that contains valuable information on grid operations. Initial signatures of an incipient failure are often reflected in this data in the form of electrical waveform distortions. Conventional protection schemes are not equipped to analyze these distortions and anticipate failures. There is a considerable research gap for a simple yet robust and universal failure anticipation and diagnosis scheme. This paper proposes a universal Failure Anticipation and Diagnosis Scheme (FADS) to detect incipient failures in AC distribution grids. The method comprises three short stages, helping the operator make an informed decision. In the first stage, the FADS scheme leverages the fundamental properties of electrical sinusoid waveforms to detect distortions. In the second stage, the distortion data is processed through pre-determined thresholds set in accordance with the system's regular operation. In the third stage, depending on the system, the FADS uses the extent of the violations of these thresholds and ranks the severity of the danger posed to grid operations. The classification helps determine if the waveform distortions are the signature of an incipient failure. The proposed FADS method's reliability, robustness and effectiveness are evaluated in incipient failure conditions of field events modelled in real-time simulations on standardized IEEE distribution feeders. The FADS is a high-speed distortion detector, is quite sensitive, and the method has high selectivity because of its nature.