Failure probability of regional flood defences

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Polders in the Netherlands are protected from flooding by primary and regional flood defence systems. During the last decade, scientific research in flood risk focused on the development of a probabilistic approach to quantify the probability of flooding of the primary flood defence system. This paper proposed a methodology to quantify the probability of flooding of regional flood defence systems, which required several additions to the methodology used for the primary flood defence system. These additions focused on a method to account for regulation of regional water levels, the possibility of (reduced) intrusion resistance due to maintenance dredging in regional water, the probability of traffic loads and the influence of dependence between regional water levels and the phreatic surface of a regional flood defence. In addition, reliability updating is used to demonstrate the potential for updating the probability of failure of regional flood defences with performance observations. The results demonstrated that the proposed methodology can be used to determine the probability of flooding of a regional flood defence system. In doing so, the methodology contributes to improving flood risk management in these systems.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication3rd European Conference on Flood Risk Management (FLOODrisk 2016)
Subtitle of host publicationLyon, France, October 17-21, 2016
EditorsM. lang, F. Klijn, P. Samuels
Number of pages12
Publication statusPublished - 20 Oct 2016
Event3rd European Conference on Flood Risk Management, FLOODrisk 2016 - Lyon Convention Centre, Lyon, France
Duration: 17 Oct 201621 Oct 2016
Conference number: 3

Publication series

NameE3S Web of Conferences
PublisherEDP Sciences
ISSN (Print)2267-0667


Conference3rd European Conference on Flood Risk Management, FLOODrisk 2016
Abbreviated titleFLOODrisk 2016
Internet address

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