Flood risk assessment for road infrastructures using bayesian networks: Case study of santarem - portugal

Erica Arango*, Monica Santamaria, Maria Nogal, Helder S. Sousa, Jose C. Matos

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volumeConference contributionScientificpeer-review

2 Downloads (Pure)


Assessing flood risks on road infrastructures is critical for the definition of mitigation strategies and adaptation processes. Some efforts have been made to conduct a regional flood risk assessment to support the decision-making process of exposed areas. However, these approaches focus on the physical damage of civil infrastructures without considering indirect impacts resulting from social aspects or traffic delays due to the functionality loss of transportation infrastructures. Moreover, existing methodologies do not include a proper assessment of the uncertainties involved in the risk quantification. This work aims to provide a consistent quantitative flood risk estimation and influence factor modelling for road infrastructures. To this end, a Flood Risk Factor (FRF) is computed as a function of hazard, vulnerability, and infrastructure importance factors. A Bayesian Network (BN) is constructed for considering the interdependencies among the selected input factors, as well as accounting for the uncertainties involved in the modelling process. The proposed approach allows weighting the relevant factors differently to compute the FRF and improves the understanding of the causal relations between them. The suggested method is applied to a case study located in the region of Santarem Portugal, allowing the identification of the sub-basins where the road network has the highest risks and illustrating the potential of Bayesian inference techniques for updating the model when new information becomes available.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationInternational Probabilistic Workshop 2022, IPW 2022
EditorsMiroslav Sykora, Roman Lenner, Nico de Koker
PublisherCzech Sustainable Building Society Czech Technical University in Prague Klokner Institute of Czech Technical University in Prague IISBE, CIB, UNEP
Number of pages14
ISBN (Electronic)9788001070352
Publication statusPublished - 2022
Event19th International Probabilistic Workshop, IPW 2022 - Stellenbosch, South Africa
Duration: 8 Sep 20229 Sep 2022

Publication series

NameActa Polytechnica CTU Proceedings
ISSN (Electronic)2336-5382


Conference19th International Probabilistic Workshop, IPW 2022
Country/TerritorySouth Africa

Bibliographical note

Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.


  • Bayesian networks
  • decision-making
  • flood risk assessment
  • road networks


Dive into the research topics of 'Flood risk assessment for road infrastructures using bayesian networks: Case study of santarem - portugal'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this