Future technological and economic performance of IGCC and FT production facilities with and without CO₂ capture: Combining component based learning curve and bottom-up analysis

This study aims to investigate the technological and economic prospects of integrated gasification facilities for power (IGCC) and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) liquid production with and without CCS over time. For this purpose, a component based experience curve was constructed and applied to identify the potential performance improvement of integrated gasification facilities. The results of the experience curve were compared with a bottom-up technology analysis conducted in previous work (Meerman et al., 2012). Results indicate that substantial cost reductions and performance improvements are possible, especially for IGCC with CCS. For instance, the costs of electricity production (COE) may decrease from 82€₂₀₀₈/MWh at present to 50€₂₀₀₈/MWh in 2050, if solid oxide fuel cells become commercially available (with a constant coal price of 2.25€₂₀₀₈/GJ). This cost decrease can only be realized if installed IGCC capacity increase to over 600GW_e and installed CCS capacity to over 3000GW_e equivalent. Also IGCC without CCS have considerable learning potential, with COE projected to decrease from the current 60 to 40€₂₀₀₈/MWh in the long term. Furthermore, the COE of IGCC without CCS could be competitive with the current market price in the short term. Initial support is, however, needed to realize the first 20GW_e. Currently, coal-based FT-liquids are already competitive at an oil price of 77€₂₀₀₈/bbl for FT-liquids without CCS and of 83€₂₀₀₈/bbl with CCS, resulting in CO₂ capture costs of only 11€₂₀₀₈/tCO₂. By 2050, production costs of FT-liquids could drop to 9.3€₂₀₀₈/GJ for FT-liquids without CCS and to 10€₂₀₀₈/GJ for FT-liquids with CCS. To realize this cost reduction, an installed capacity of about 430GW_{th_FT} is needed. The bottom-up and the component based experience curve analyses gave comparable trends regarding the potential development of efficiency, capital costs and production costs for a scenario with a strong growth in IGCC, FT and CCS capacity. The main advantage of combining the two approaches is that it becomes clear how cost reductions can be achieved, what kind of capacity development and the time frame is required to reach the projected improvements.