Gibbs Sampling for Game-Theoretic Modeling of Private Network Upgrades with Distributed Generation

Merlinda Andoni, Valentin Robu, David Flynn, Wolf Gerrit Friuh

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volumeConference contributionScientificpeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Renewable energy is increasingly being curtailed, due to oversupply or network constraints. Curtailment can be partially avoided by smart grid management, but the long term solution is network reinforcement. Network upgrades, however, can be costly, so recent interest has focused on incentivising private investors to participate in network investments. In this paper, we study settings where a private renewable investor constructs a power line, but also provides access to other generators that pay a transmission fee. The decisions on optimal (and interdependent) renewable capacities built by investors, affect the resulting curtailment and profitability of projects, and can be formulated as a Stackelberg game. Optimal capacities rely jointly on stochastic variables, such as the renewable resource at project location. In this paper, we show how Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Gibbs sampling techniques, can be used to generate observations from historic resource data and simulate multiple future scenarios. Finally, we validate and apply our game-Theoretic formulation of the investment decision, to a real network upgrade problem in the UK.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings - 2018 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference Europe, ISGT-Europe 2018
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
ISBN (Electronic)9781538645055
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 10 Dec 2018
Externally publishedYes
Event2018 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference Europe, ISGT-Europe 2018 - Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Duration: 21 Oct 201825 Oct 2018

Publication series

NameProceedings - 2018 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference Europe, ISGT-Europe 2018

Conference

Conference2018 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference Europe, ISGT-Europe 2018
CountryBosnia and Herzegovina
CitySarajevo
Period21/10/1825/10/18

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