How Do Developers Influence the Transaction Costs of China’s Prefabricated Housing Development Process? An Investigation Through the Bayesian Belief Network Approach

The implementation of prefabricated housing (PH) has become prevalent in China recently due to its advantages in enhancing production and energy-saving efficiency within the construction system. However, stakeholders may not always fully realize the benefits of adopting PH due to the emergence of transaction costs (TCs) in the development process of such projects. This study investigated the strategies for developers to make rational choices for minimizing the TCs of the PH project considering their own attributes and external constraints. A Bayesian Belief Network model was applied as the analytical method, based on surveys conducted in China. A single sensitivity analysis indicated that developers influence the TCs of PH through the following three most impactful factors: prefabrication rate, PH experience, and contract payment method. Integrated strategies are recommended for developers in various situations based on a multiple sensitivity analysis. Developers facing challenges due to high prefabrication rates are advised to reduce the risks by procuring highly qualified general contractors and adopting unit-price contracts. For developers with limited PH experience, adopting the Engineering–Procurement–Construction procurement method is the most efficient way to reduce their TCs in the context of China’s PH market. This study contributes to the current body of knowledge concerning the effect of traders’ attributes and choices on TCs, expanding the application of TC theory and fulfilling the study on the determinants of TCs in construction management.