How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather

Timo Kelder; Dorothy Heinrich; Lisette Klok; Vikki Thompson; Henrique M.D. Goulart; Ed Hawkins; Louise J. Slater; Laura Suarez-Gutierrez; Ellen van Bueren; null More Authors

doi:10.1038/s41467-025-57450-0

How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather

Timo Kelder^*, Dorothy Heinrich, Lisette Klok, Vikki Thompson, Henrique M.D. Goulart, Ed Hawkins, Louise J. Slater, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Ellen van Bueren, More Authors

^*Corresponding author for this work

Management in the Built Environment

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Scientific › peer-review

16 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

We see unprecedented weather causing widespread impacts across the world. In this perspective, we provide an overview of methods that help anticipate unprecedented weather hazards that can contribute to stop being surprised. We then discuss disaster management and climate adaptation practices, their gaps, and how the methods to anticipate unprecedented weather may help build resilience. We stimulate thinking about transformative adaptation as a foundation for long-term resilience to unprecedented weather, supported by incremental adaptation through upgrading existing infrastructure, and reactive adaptation through short-term early action and disaster response. Because in the end, we should take responsibility to build resilience rather than being surprised by unprecedented weather.

Original language	English
Article number	2382
Number of pages	15
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	16
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-57450-0
Publication status	Published - 2025

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1038/s41467-025-57450-0

s41467-025-57450-0Final published version, 2.49 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

@article{3ed186c12fb7408192fd140fd769aaf6,

title = "How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather",

abstract = "We see unprecedented weather causing widespread impacts across the world. In this perspective, we provide an overview of methods that help anticipate unprecedented weather hazards that can contribute to stop being surprised. We then discuss disaster management and climate adaptation practices, their gaps, and how the methods to anticipate unprecedented weather may help build resilience. We stimulate thinking about transformative adaptation as a foundation for long-term resilience to unprecedented weather, supported by incremental adaptation through upgrading existing infrastructure, and reactive adaptation through short-term early action and disaster response. Because in the end, we should take responsibility to build resilience rather than being surprised by unprecedented weather.",

author = "Timo Kelder and Dorothy Heinrich and Lisette Klok and Vikki Thompson and Goulart, {Henrique M.D.} and Ed Hawkins and Slater, {Louise J.} and Laura Suarez-Gutierrez and {van Bueren}, Ellen and {More Authors}",

year = "2025",

doi = "10.1038/s41467-025-57450-0",

language = "English",

volume = "16",

journal = "Nature Communications",

issn = "2041-1723",

publisher = "Nature",

number = "1",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather

AU - Kelder, Timo

AU - Heinrich, Dorothy

AU - Klok, Lisette

AU - Thompson, Vikki

AU - Goulart, Henrique M.D.

AU - Hawkins, Ed

AU - Slater, Louise J.

AU - Suarez-Gutierrez, Laura

AU - van Bueren, Ellen

AU - More Authors, null

PY - 2025

Y1 - 2025

N2 - We see unprecedented weather causing widespread impacts across the world. In this perspective, we provide an overview of methods that help anticipate unprecedented weather hazards that can contribute to stop being surprised. We then discuss disaster management and climate adaptation practices, their gaps, and how the methods to anticipate unprecedented weather may help build resilience. We stimulate thinking about transformative adaptation as a foundation for long-term resilience to unprecedented weather, supported by incremental adaptation through upgrading existing infrastructure, and reactive adaptation through short-term early action and disaster response. Because in the end, we should take responsibility to build resilience rather than being surprised by unprecedented weather.

AB - We see unprecedented weather causing widespread impacts across the world. In this perspective, we provide an overview of methods that help anticipate unprecedented weather hazards that can contribute to stop being surprised. We then discuss disaster management and climate adaptation practices, their gaps, and how the methods to anticipate unprecedented weather may help build resilience. We stimulate thinking about transformative adaptation as a foundation for long-term resilience to unprecedented weather, supported by incremental adaptation through upgrading existing infrastructure, and reactive adaptation through short-term early action and disaster response. Because in the end, we should take responsibility to build resilience rather than being surprised by unprecedented weather.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=105000086677&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1038/s41467-025-57450-0

DO - 10.1038/s41467-025-57450-0

M3 - Article

C2 - 40064852

AN - SCOPUS:105000086677

SN - 2041-1723

VL - 16

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

IS - 1

M1 - 2382

ER -

How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather

Abstract

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this