Identification and Explanation of a Change in the Groundwater Regime using Time Series Analysis

Christophe Obergfell*, Mark Bakker, Kees Maas

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

10 Citations (Scopus)
171 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Time series analysis is applied to identify and analyze a transition in the groundwater regime in the aquifer below the sand ridge of Salland in the Netherlands, where groundwater regime refers to the range of head variations throughout the seasons. Standard time series analysis revealed a discrepancy between modeled and observed heads in several piezometers indicating a possible change in the groundwater regime. A new time series modeling approach is developed to simulate the transition from the initial regime to the altered regime. The transition is modeled as a weighted sum of two responses, one representing the initial state of the system, the other representing the altered state. The inferred timing and magnitude of the change provided strong evidence that the transition was the result of significant dredging works that increased the river bed conductance of the main river draining the aquifer. The plausibility of this explanation is corroborated by an analytical model. This case study and the developed approach to identify a change in the groundwater regime are meant to stimulate a more systematic application of time series analysis to detect and understand changes in groundwater systems which may easily go unnoticed in groundwater flow modeling.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)886-894
Number of pages9
JournalGroundwater
Volume57
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2019

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