TY - JOUR
T1 - Impact of vehicle speeds and changes in mean speeds on per vehicle-kilometer traffic accident rates in Japan
AU - Tanishita, Masayoshi
AU - van Wee, Bert
PY - 2016
Y1 - 2016
N2 - Speed and speed variation are widely believed to be key issues in the understanding of traffic accidents. However, there has not been a substantial amount of research that focuses on the interaction between the mean speed and the change in the mean speeds. In this paper we use a five-minute continuous monitoring data of the mean speed on an expressway in Japan. Applying a two dimensional additive Poisson model, we show that not only mean speeds but also changes in mean speeds affect per vehicle-kilometer traffic accident rates. The highest probability of an accident occurs when speed reduces from 110 to 85. km/h. Another area of high accident probability occurs when the average speed increases from 65 to 90. km/h. In addition, we found that accident rates are higher when there is sunny weather, rather than when it is cloudy.
AB - Speed and speed variation are widely believed to be key issues in the understanding of traffic accidents. However, there has not been a substantial amount of research that focuses on the interaction between the mean speed and the change in the mean speeds. In this paper we use a five-minute continuous monitoring data of the mean speed on an expressway in Japan. Applying a two dimensional additive Poisson model, we show that not only mean speeds but also changes in mean speeds affect per vehicle-kilometer traffic accident rates. The highest probability of an accident occurs when speed reduces from 110 to 85. km/h. Another area of high accident probability occurs when the average speed increases from 65 to 90. km/h. In addition, we found that accident rates are higher when there is sunny weather, rather than when it is cloudy.
KW - Changes in mean speeds
KW - Per vehicle-kilometer traffic accident rates
KW - Two dimensional additive Poisson model
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85001048563&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:fe0f4ecb-1338-49a0-b149-7cc2c25a842a
U2 - 10.1016/j.iatssr.2016.09.003
DO - 10.1016/j.iatssr.2016.09.003
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85001048563
SN - 0386-1112
JO - IATSS Research
JF - IATSS Research
ER -