TY - JOUR
T1 - Impact of water resources development on water availability for hydropower production and irrigated agriculture of the Eastern Nile basin
AU - Digna, Reem F.
AU - Mohamed, Yasir A.
AU - van der Zaag, Pieter
AU - Uhlenbrook, Stefan
AU - van der Krogt, Wil
AU - Corzo, Gerald
PY - 2018/5/1
Y1 - 2018/5/1
N2 - The Eastern Nile riparian countries are currently developing several reservoir projects to contribute to the needs for energy and food production in the region. In the absence of formal mechanisms for collaboration, the transboundary nature of the Eastern Nile basin makes water resources development challenging. The large seasonal and interannual variability of the river flow increases those challenges. This paper assesses the implications of water resources development in the Eastern Nile basin on water availability for hydropower generation and irrigation demands at country and regional levels, using simulation and scenario analysis methods. Twelve scenarios are used to test developments of several dams and irrigation demands, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) operation options, and unilateral (status quo) versus integrated transboundary management of dams. A RIBASIM model that included 20 dams and 21 irrigation schemes was built, using a complete data set of 103 years at a monthly time step. Four indicators have been used for evaluating the performance of the system: hydroenergy generation (MWh=year), reliability of irrigation supply (%), reservoir net evaporation (106 m3/year), and flow regimes of rivers (m3/s). The results show that in case of managing the system in an integrated transboundary manner and without new irrigation development projects, GERD would increase the hydroenergy generation in Ethiopia by + 1,500% and in Sudan by + 17%, with a slight reduction in Egypt of -1%. Supply reliability of existing and planned irrigation schemes in Sudan would not be practically influenced by the GERD, but the reliability will be reduced by about 8% when upstream development and new irrigation expansion materialize. Full development of the Eastern Nile basin would reduce the irrigation supply reliability in Egypt to 92% compared to the base scenario (100%). Compared to integrated management, unilateral management would increase the hydroenergy generation in Ethiopia (+16%), increase the rate of evaporation losses in the basin (+15%), and reduce the irrigation supply reliability in Sudan after full development of dams and irrigation projects (-10%). Water resources development would have considerable but varying effects on the countries.
AB - The Eastern Nile riparian countries are currently developing several reservoir projects to contribute to the needs for energy and food production in the region. In the absence of formal mechanisms for collaboration, the transboundary nature of the Eastern Nile basin makes water resources development challenging. The large seasonal and interannual variability of the river flow increases those challenges. This paper assesses the implications of water resources development in the Eastern Nile basin on water availability for hydropower generation and irrigation demands at country and regional levels, using simulation and scenario analysis methods. Twelve scenarios are used to test developments of several dams and irrigation demands, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) operation options, and unilateral (status quo) versus integrated transboundary management of dams. A RIBASIM model that included 20 dams and 21 irrigation schemes was built, using a complete data set of 103 years at a monthly time step. Four indicators have been used for evaluating the performance of the system: hydroenergy generation (MWh=year), reliability of irrigation supply (%), reservoir net evaporation (106 m3/year), and flow regimes of rivers (m3/s). The results show that in case of managing the system in an integrated transboundary manner and without new irrigation development projects, GERD would increase the hydroenergy generation in Ethiopia by + 1,500% and in Sudan by + 17%, with a slight reduction in Egypt of -1%. Supply reliability of existing and planned irrigation schemes in Sudan would not be practically influenced by the GERD, but the reliability will be reduced by about 8% when upstream development and new irrigation expansion materialize. Full development of the Eastern Nile basin would reduce the irrigation supply reliability in Egypt to 92% compared to the base scenario (100%). Compared to integrated management, unilateral management would increase the hydroenergy generation in Ethiopia (+16%), increase the rate of evaporation losses in the basin (+15%), and reduce the irrigation supply reliability in Sudan after full development of dams and irrigation projects (-10%). Water resources development would have considerable but varying effects on the countries.
KW - Eastern Nile basin
KW - Energy generation
KW - Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
KW - RIBASIM
KW - River basin management
KW - Simulation models
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85042172600&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:c11cc5aa-5ebb-459f-87e9-741871c5490d
U2 - 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000912
DO - 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000912
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85042172600
SN - 0733-9496
VL - 144
JO - Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
JF - Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
IS - 5
M1 - 05018007
ER -
