Impacts of Tropical Cyclones on the Caribbean Under Future Climate Conditions

Olga S. Kleptsova; Henk A. Dijkstra; René M. van Westen; Carine G. van der Boog; Caroline A. Katsman; Rebecca K. James; Tjeerd J. Bouma; Roland Klees; Riccardo E.M. Riva; D. Cornelis Slobbe; Marcel Zijlema; Julie D. Pietrzak

doi:10.1029/2020JC016869

Impacts of Tropical Cyclones on the Caribbean Under Future Climate Conditions

Olga S. Kleptsova^*, Henk A. Dijkstra, René M. van Westen, Carine G. van der Boog, Caroline A. Katsman, Rebecca K. James, Tjeerd J. Bouma, Roland Klees, Riccardo E.M. Riva, D. Cornelis Slobbe, Marcel Zijlema, Julie D. Pietrzak

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

Joint effects of the dynamic sea-level rise projected changes in the large-scale atmosphere/ocean circulation, and wave climate on hurricane-induced extreme water levels in the Caribbean region are assessed. We use the 2D-depth integrated ADCIRC + SWAN wave-ocean model, baroclinically coupled to an ocean-eddying version of the Community Earth System Model, to compare impacts of the September 2017 hurricanes with projected impacts of similar hypothetical tropical storms occurring in the future. The model predicts only minor changes in the hurricane-induced extreme water levels for those Caribbean islands which were severely devastated by the 2017 tropical storms (Irma and Maria). That is, provided that the hurricane intensity remains at the present-day level, the global mean sea-level rise is the main future coastal flood risk factor.

Original language	English
Article number	e2020JC016869
Journal	Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Volume	126
Issue number	9
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016869
Publication status	Published - 2021

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Kleptsova, O. S., Dijkstra, H. A., van Westen, R. M., van der Boog, C. G., Katsman, C. A., James, R. K., Bouma, T. J., Klees, R., Riva, R. E. M., Slobbe, D. C., Zijlema, M., & Pietrzak, J. D. (2021). Impacts of Tropical Cyclones on the Caribbean Under Future Climate Conditions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 126(9), Article e2020JC016869. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016869

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title = "Impacts of Tropical Cyclones on the Caribbean Under Future Climate Conditions",

abstract = "Joint effects of the dynamic sea-level rise projected changes in the large-scale atmosphere/ocean circulation, and wave climate on hurricane-induced extreme water levels in the Caribbean region are assessed. We use the 2D-depth integrated ADCIRC + SWAN wave-ocean model, baroclinically coupled to an ocean-eddying version of the Community Earth System Model, to compare impacts of the September 2017 hurricanes with projected impacts of similar hypothetical tropical storms occurring in the future. The model predicts only minor changes in the hurricane-induced extreme water levels for those Caribbean islands which were severely devastated by the 2017 tropical storms (Irma and Maria). That is, provided that the hurricane intensity remains at the present-day level, the global mean sea-level rise is the main future coastal flood risk factor.",

author = "Kleptsova, {Olga S.} and Dijkstra, {Henk A.} and van Westen, {Ren{\'e} M.} and van der Boog, {Carine G.} and Katsman, {Caroline A.} and James, {Rebecca K.} and Bouma, {Tjeerd J.} and Roland Klees and Riva, {Riccardo E.M.} and Slobbe, {D. Cornelis} and Marcel Zijlema and Pietrzak, {Julie D.}",

year = "2021",

doi = "10.1029/2020JC016869",

language = "English",

volume = "126",

journal = "Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans",

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T1 - Impacts of Tropical Cyclones on the Caribbean Under Future Climate Conditions

AU - Kleptsova, Olga S.

AU - Dijkstra, Henk A.

AU - van Westen, René M.

AU - van der Boog, Carine G.

AU - Katsman, Caroline A.

AU - James, Rebecca K.

AU - Bouma, Tjeerd J.

AU - Klees, Roland

AU - Riva, Riccardo E.M.

AU - Slobbe, D. Cornelis

AU - Zijlema, Marcel

AU - Pietrzak, Julie D.

PY - 2021

Y1 - 2021

N2 - Joint effects of the dynamic sea-level rise projected changes in the large-scale atmosphere/ocean circulation, and wave climate on hurricane-induced extreme water levels in the Caribbean region are assessed. We use the 2D-depth integrated ADCIRC + SWAN wave-ocean model, baroclinically coupled to an ocean-eddying version of the Community Earth System Model, to compare impacts of the September 2017 hurricanes with projected impacts of similar hypothetical tropical storms occurring in the future. The model predicts only minor changes in the hurricane-induced extreme water levels for those Caribbean islands which were severely devastated by the 2017 tropical storms (Irma and Maria). That is, provided that the hurricane intensity remains at the present-day level, the global mean sea-level rise is the main future coastal flood risk factor.

AB - Joint effects of the dynamic sea-level rise projected changes in the large-scale atmosphere/ocean circulation, and wave climate on hurricane-induced extreme water levels in the Caribbean region are assessed. We use the 2D-depth integrated ADCIRC + SWAN wave-ocean model, baroclinically coupled to an ocean-eddying version of the Community Earth System Model, to compare impacts of the September 2017 hurricanes with projected impacts of similar hypothetical tropical storms occurring in the future. The model predicts only minor changes in the hurricane-induced extreme water levels for those Caribbean islands which were severely devastated by the 2017 tropical storms (Irma and Maria). That is, provided that the hurricane intensity remains at the present-day level, the global mean sea-level rise is the main future coastal flood risk factor.

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DO - 10.1029/2020JC016869

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VL - 126

JO - Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans

JF - Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans

IS - 9

M1 - e2020JC016869

ER -

Impacts of Tropical Cyclones on the Caribbean Under Future Climate Conditions

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