Integrated air and space management: an agent-based simulation for analysis of space launch impact on air traffic

The recent surge in space launch activities, driven by the emergence of commercial space launches, has compelled the aviation and space launch sectors to collaborate for the safe and efficient integration of space launch activities. This paper introduces an agent-based modeling (ABM) and simulation framework designed to assess the impact of spacecraft launches on air traffic within an integrated air and space traffic management system. The proposed framework incorporates various agents involved in the execution phase of space launches and considers the interactions and coordination between air traffic management and space traffic management. The paper firstly provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of space launch operations and their effects. Then, a general agent-based model is developed for space launch execution phase in order to gain an understanding of various entities involved in a space launch activity as well as the interactions among these entities. Using Monte-Carlo simulations based on the ABM, the paper assesses the impact on air traffic operations in the event of a space launch failure. In each simulation, various factors are taken into account, including launch site position, launch slot, failure probability during the execution phase, debris dispersion, and time delay in Air Traffic Management (ATM)/Space Traffic Management (STM) coordination. To demonstrate the practical application of the proposed framework in an operational context, the paper presents a case study of a sea-based space launch in the Singapore FIR. The paper makes a valuable contribution to the field of air and space traffic management by addressing the need for innovative strategies to ensure the safe sharing ofairspace among different stakeholders.