Interacting Particle System based estimation of reach probability of General Stochastic Hybrid Systems

For diffusions, a well-developed approach in rare event estimation is to introduce a suitable factorization of the reach probability and then to estimate these factors through simulation of an Interacting Particle System (IPS). This paper studies IPS based reach probability estimation for General Stochastic Hybrid Systems (GSHS). The continuous-time executions of a GSHS evolve in a hybrid state space under influence of combinations of diffusions, spontaneous jumps and forced jumps. In applying IPS to a GSHS, simulation of the GSHS execution plays a central role. From literature, two basic approaches in simulating GSHS execution are known. One approach is direct simulation of a GSHS execution. An alternative is to first transform the spontaneous jumps of a GSHS to forced transitions, and then to simulate executions of this transformed version. This paper will show that the latter transformation yields an extra Markov state component that should be treated as being unobservable for the IPS process. To formally make this state component unobservable for IPS, this paper also develops an enriched GSHS transformation prior to transforming spontaneous jumps to forced jumps. The expected improvements in IPS reach probability estimation are also illustrated through simulation results for a simple GSHS example.