TY - JOUR
T1 - Interval Analysis of the Loss of Life Caused by Dam Failure
AU - Ge, Wei
AU - Wang, Xiuwei
AU - Li, Zongkun
AU - Zhang, Hexiang
AU - Guo, Xinyan
AU - Wang, Te
AU - Gao, Weixing
AU - Lin, Chaoning
AU - Van Gelder, Pieter
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - Both hydrodynamic factors and social factors have large impacts on the loss of life caused by dam failure. Relatively large uncertainty intervals of the influencing factors lead to changes in the potential loss of life. Based on an analysis of the formation mechanism of loss of life, the influencing factors were identified. Combined with interval theory, a method for calculating loss of life and determining the impacts of the influencing factors on loss of life was proposed. The intervals of the exposure rate of the population at risk and the mortality of the exposed population, which are impacted by the major influencing factors such as the flood severity, warning time, understanding of dam failure, and building vulnerability, were recommended. Furthermore, a range of correction coefficients caused by the minor influencing factors, such as the dam failure time, rescue ability, and age distribution, was analyzed. The proposed method was validated by analyzing the losses of life in 21 flooded regions after 10 dam failure events and 2 flash river floods, in which the intervals of the estimated results all contained the actual loss of life. In addition, the ratios of the upper bounds to the corresponding lower bounds of the intervals were all less than 10, which is in accordance with the characteristic that the results of different existing methods vary within an order of magnitude. This is the first work that pays careful attention to the uncertainty intervals of loss of life estimates, and the proposed method effectively determined the severity of the potential loss of life caused by dam failure.
AB - Both hydrodynamic factors and social factors have large impacts on the loss of life caused by dam failure. Relatively large uncertainty intervals of the influencing factors lead to changes in the potential loss of life. Based on an analysis of the formation mechanism of loss of life, the influencing factors were identified. Combined with interval theory, a method for calculating loss of life and determining the impacts of the influencing factors on loss of life was proposed. The intervals of the exposure rate of the population at risk and the mortality of the exposed population, which are impacted by the major influencing factors such as the flood severity, warning time, understanding of dam failure, and building vulnerability, were recommended. Furthermore, a range of correction coefficients caused by the minor influencing factors, such as the dam failure time, rescue ability, and age distribution, was analyzed. The proposed method was validated by analyzing the losses of life in 21 flooded regions after 10 dam failure events and 2 flash river floods, in which the intervals of the estimated results all contained the actual loss of life. In addition, the ratios of the upper bounds to the corresponding lower bounds of the intervals were all less than 10, which is in accordance with the characteristic that the results of different existing methods vary within an order of magnitude. This is the first work that pays careful attention to the uncertainty intervals of loss of life estimates, and the proposed method effectively determined the severity of the potential loss of life caused by dam failure.
KW - Dam failure
KW - Formation mechanism
KW - Influencing factors
KW - Loss of life
KW - Uncertainty intervals
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85096242248&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001311
DO - 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001311
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85096242248
SN - 0733-9496
VL - 147
JO - Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
JF - Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
IS - 1
M1 - 04020098
ER -