Long-term rogue wave occurrence probability from historical wave data on a spatial scale relevant for spar-type floating wind turbines

T. P. Nederkoorn, H. C. Seyffert*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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Abstract

Very large waves, such as rogue waves, can be dangerous for ships and offshore structures. There is no consensus on the theoretical occurrence probability of these rogues and ocean measurements containing rogue waves are rare. This paper addresses the long-term occurrence probability of rogue waves using time-extreme (TE) and space–time extreme (STE) statistical wave models, evaluated with a significant amount of historical directional wave data from Monterey Bay, California, USA. A novel understanding of these models is obtained by exploring the area size for which the STE models estimate a higher rogue wave occurrence probability compared to the TE models. For four rogue wave and crest heights the return periods until a 95% rogue wave occurrence probability are estimated. To illustrate an application of this statistical analysis, the risk of rogue waves to a spar-type floating wind turbine is evaluated. Based on both the dynamic response and the long-term occurrence probability of the rogue wave, this research presents a new and advanced approach for a risk analysis of rogue waves to floating offshore structures.

Original languageEnglish
Article number110955
Number of pages14
JournalOcean Engineering
Volume251
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2022

Keywords

  • Dynamic response
  • Historical wave data
  • Occurrence probability
  • Rogue waves
  • Spar-type floating wind turbine
  • Statistical wave models

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