Mobility impacts of early forms of automated driving: A system dynamic approach

Steven Puylaert, M. Snelder, R. van Nes, B. van Arem

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

19 Citations (Scopus)
49 Downloads (Pure)


Modern cars are increasingly being equipped with automated driving functions. For governments it is important to gain insight in the mobility impacts of automated vehicles. This is important as the introduction of automated vehicles affects current investment decisions about infrastructure projects and other policy measures like road pricing. Quantitative literature with respect to the impact of automated vehicles focuses mostly on capacity implications. Literature about large scale mobility impacts is mainly qualitative. This paper introduces a System Dynamics model (SD-model) to quantitatively explore the impacts of early forms of automated vehicles (level 1, 2 and 3) on mobility. The model is explorative and can be used to evaluate different scenarios in a short time. This model is applied in a case study for the Netherlands to assess the impact of automated vehicles on mode choice, time of day choice and travel times on characteristic relations in the Netherlands. In contrast to other studies the SD-model is able to simulate the effects of AVs over time, can simulate mixed automated vehicle types and has a constant feedback between the assignment and the demand side of the model. A scenario for autonomous driving and a scenario for cooperative driving is considered. The simulations show that car traffic will increase and the level of congestion does not necessarily decrease and might even increase on some relations, especially in the autonomous scenario. Furthermore, in the cooperative scenario the increase in number of trips by car is larger, the average speeds are higher and there is less congestion compared to the autonomous scenario.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)171-179
Number of pages15
JournalTransport Policy
Publication statusPublished - 2018

Bibliographical note

Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.


  • Automated vehicles
  • Large scale effects
  • Mobility effects
  • Self-driving cars
  • System dynamics


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