Modelling the leakage rate and reduction using minimum night flow analysis in an intermittent supply system

A significant portion of the water supplied to people doesn't reach its valid users but instead leaks out of the distribution network, causing water wastage, revenue loss and contamination risks. This paper analyses the leakage rate, leakage components and leakage reduction potential. A minimum night flow (MNF) analysis was carried out on a district metered area (DMA) in an intermittent supply system in Zarqa, Jordan. Leakage was modelled and leakage reduction policies were analysed. Results show that MNF occurs at night or during day time depending on the water levels in customer tanks, implying that one-day MNF analysis cannot be carried out in intermittent supplies and the estimation of the legitimate consumption during MNF is more influential. The potential water savings of the different leakage reduction measures (pressure management; leakage detection; response time minimization) are separately analysed in the existing models in the literature, leading to significant overestimation of the total leakage reduction potential, while these measures are influencing each other. Pressure reduction lowers the failure frequencies but limits the potential of leakage detection surveys, as leaks will become harder to hear and detect. Investigating the inter-dependency relations of these measures is therefore essential for reasonable leakage reduction modelling and planning.