On the spot and map: Interactive model-based policy support under deep uncertainty

Erik Pruyt*, Tushith Islam, Thomas Arzt

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volumeChapterScientificpeer-review

Abstract

In this chapter, we discuss and demonstrate the use of ‘on the spot’ and ‘on the map’ scenario exploration and policy-support in workshop settings. First we justify the need for exploratory model-based policy workshops. Then we present some methods and techniques needed for these workshops. Special attention is paid to new techniques we believe are crucially needed for this kind of interactive workshop if time is of the essence, namely (1) techniques to quickly generate small but diverse ensembles of alternative scenarios, and (2) techniques to visualize whole-system dynamics on maps by means of geospatial animations. We subsequently describe a workshop related to the 2015–2016 European refugee crisis for which this approach and these techniques were developed and used. Finally, we discuss shortcomings and improvements to deal with these shortcomings and conclude.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationPublic Administration and Information Technology
PublisherSpringer US
Pages315-342
Number of pages28
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2018

Publication series

NamePublic Administration and Information Technology
Volume25
ISSN (Print)2512-1812
ISSN (Electronic)2512-1839

Keywords

  • Adaptive sampling
  • Exploratory modelling
  • Geospatial visualization
  • System dynamics

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