Organizing an international blind prediction contest for improving a guideline for the nonlinear finite elements analysis of concrete structures

At the previous EURO-C conference, a guideline for nonlinear finite analysis and safety assessment of concrete structures was presented. This guideline is a results of a cooperation between the Delft University of Technology, the University of Parma and the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment. The nonlinear finite element results of a workshop around shear failure, held in Rotterdam in 2007, was the starting point for the development of a guideline for nonlinear finite element analysis. The scatter of the results presented in Rotterdam was considered as too large; knowledge of nonlinear finite element analysis of concrete structures should be controlled better in order to make nonlinear finite element analysis an accepted method. In 2012 the first version of the guideline that focussed on girder structures was published.

In 2014, at the concrete structures laboratory of the Delft University of Technology, four almost similar pre-stressed girders were tested till the ultimate limit load level. This was considered as an opportunity to organise a contest to predict this ultimate load level at failure. The participants were asked to make use of the guideline. A workshop at the University of Parma gave the teams the opportunity to pitch their predictions. This paper presents the following topics: an overview of the content of the guideline, the gain of a controlled blind prediction contest and the main outcomes of the contest in Parma.