People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning

Junji Urata, Adam Pel

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)
2 Downloads (Pure)


Evacuation planning and management involves estimating the travel demand in the event that such action is required. This is usually done as a function of people's decision to evacuate, which we show is strongly linked to their risk awareness. We use an empirical data set, which shows tsunami evacuation behavior, to demonstrate that risk recognition is not synonymous with objective risk, but is instead determined by a combination of factors including risk education, information, and sociodemographics, and that it changes dynamically over time. Based on these findings, we formulate an ordered logit model to describe risk recognition combined with a latent class model to describe evacuation choices. Our proposed evacuation choice model along with a risk recognition class can evaluate quantitatively the influence of disaster mitigation measures, risk education, and risk information. The results obtained from the risk recognition model show that risk information has a greater impact in the sense that people recognize their high risk. The results of the evacuation choice model show that people who are unaware of their risk take a longer time to evacuate.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)889-905
Number of pages17
JournalRisk Analysis: an international journal
Issue number5
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 2017


  • Evacuation behavior
  • evacuation planning
  • latent class model
  • risk recognition

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