TY - JOUR
T1 - Petri-net based cascading effect analysis of vapor cloud explosions
AU - Zhou, Jianfeng
AU - Reniers, Genserik
PY - 2017
Y1 - 2017
N2 - In the chemical process industry, flammable gases are handled or stored in many production- or storage facilities. They can cause a vapor cloud explosion (VCE) accident if they come free from their containment and there is an ignition. A knock-on effect propagation from a primary VCE to one or more subsequent VCE(s) forms the cascading effect of VCEs. A new methodology of probabilistic Petri-net (PPN), which is an extension of Petri-net, is proposed to model the cascading effect and estimate the probabilities of escalation VCEs. The definition of what is a PPN is provided and three types of probabilistic relationships based on PPN are modeled. Further, the VCE cascading analysis approach based on Petri-net reasoning (execution of transitions) is discussed. The approach is illustrated by an example analyzing a VCE cascading effect in atmospheric tanks containing gasoline.
AB - In the chemical process industry, flammable gases are handled or stored in many production- or storage facilities. They can cause a vapor cloud explosion (VCE) accident if they come free from their containment and there is an ignition. A knock-on effect propagation from a primary VCE to one or more subsequent VCE(s) forms the cascading effect of VCEs. A new methodology of probabilistic Petri-net (PPN), which is an extension of Petri-net, is proposed to model the cascading effect and estimate the probabilities of escalation VCEs. The definition of what is a PPN is provided and three types of probabilistic relationships based on PPN are modeled. Further, the VCE cascading analysis approach based on Petri-net reasoning (execution of transitions) is discussed. The approach is illustrated by an example analyzing a VCE cascading effect in atmospheric tanks containing gasoline.
KW - Cascading effect
KW - Domino effect
KW - Probabilistic analysis
KW - Probabilistic Petri-net
KW - Vapor cloud explosion
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85018657178&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.jlp.2017.04.017
DO - 10.1016/j.jlp.2017.04.017
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85018657178
SN - 0950-4230
VL - 48
SP - 118
EP - 125
JO - Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries: the international journal of chemical and process plant safety
JF - Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries: the international journal of chemical and process plant safety
ER -