Petrochemicals from oil, natural gas, coal and biomass: Production costs in 2030-2050

Methane, coal and biomass are being considered as alternatives to crude oil for the production of basic petrochemicals, such as light olefins. This paper is a study on the production costs of 24 process routes utilizing these primary energy sources. A wide range of projected energy prices in 2030-2050 found in the open literature is used. The basis for comparison is the production cost per t of high value chemicals (HVCs or light olefin-value equivalent). A Monte Carlo method was used to estimate the ranking of production costs of all 24 routes with 10,000 trials of varying energy prices and CO₂ emissions costs (assumed to be within $0-100/t CO₂; the total CO₂ emissions, or cradle-to-grave CO₂ emissions, were considered). High energy prices in the first three quarter of 2008 were tested separately. The main findings are:•Production costs: while the production costs of crude oil- and natural gas-based routes are within $500-900/t HVCs, those of coal- and biomass-based routes are mostly within $400-800/t HVCs. Production costs of coal- and biomass-based routes are in general quite similar while in some cases the difference is significant. Among the top seven most expensive routes, six are oil- and gas-based routes. Among the top seven least expensive routes, six are coal and biomass routes.•CO₂ emissions costs: the effect of CO₂ emissions costs was found to be strong on the coal-based routes and also quite significant on the biomass-based routes. However, the effect on oil- and gas-based routes is found to be small or relatively moderate.•Energy prices in 2008: most of the coal-based routes and biomass-based routes (particularly sugar cane) still have much lower production costs than the oil- and gas-based routes (even if international freight costs are included). To ensure the reduction of CO₂ emissions in the long-term, we suggest that policies for the petrochemicals industry focus on stimulating the use of biomass as well as carbon capture and storage features for coal-based routes.