Pitfalls of Statistical Methods in Traffic Psychology

J.C.F. de Winter; D. Dodou

doi:10.1016/B978-0-08-102671-7.10665-7

Pitfalls of Statistical Methods in Traffic Psychology

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Abstract

This article highlights four common pitfalls in the use of statistics in the area of traffic psychology. Through computer simulations of scenarios that are typical in the field, it is first shown that a statistically significant P-value does not prove that the effect is true, especially when the effect is surprising and the P-value barely significant. Second, we show that “everything is correlated”, a phenomenon which has important ramifications for significance testing. Third, we explain the perils of two-stage testing and data peeking. Finally, we explain that the violation of independence can easily lead to false positives.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	International Encyclopedia of Transportation
Editors	Roger Vickerman
Publisher	Elsevier
Pages	87-95
Volume	7
ISBN (Electronic)	978-0-08-102672-4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-08-102671-7.10665-7
Publication status	Published - 2021

Bibliographical note

Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care

Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.

Keywords

Bias
Common method variance
Correlation coefficient
False positives
Hypothesis testing
Outliers
Power
Questionable research practices
Response style
Sample size
Statistical significance
t-test
Test assumptions
Type I errors

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10.1016/B978-0-08-102671-7.10665-7

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Cite this

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title = "Pitfalls of Statistical Methods in Traffic Psychology",

abstract = "This article highlights four common pitfalls in the use of statistics in the area of traffic psychology. Through computer simulations of scenarios that are typical in the field, it is first shown that a statistically significant P-value does not prove that the effect is true, especially when the effect is surprising and the P-value barely significant. Second, we show that “everything is correlated”, a phenomenon which has important ramifications for significance testing. Third, we explain the perils of two-stage testing and data peeking. Finally, we explain that the violation of independence can easily lead to false positives.",

keywords = "Bias, Common method variance, Correlation coefficient, False positives, Hypothesis testing, Outliers, Power, Questionable research practices, Response style, Sample size, Statistical significance, t-test, Test assumptions, Type I errors",

author = "{de Winter}, J.C.F. and D. Dodou",

note = "Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.",

year = "2021",

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AB - This article highlights four common pitfalls in the use of statistics in the area of traffic psychology. Through computer simulations of scenarios that are typical in the field, it is first shown that a statistically significant P-value does not prove that the effect is true, especially when the effect is surprising and the P-value barely significant. Second, we show that “everything is correlated”, a phenomenon which has important ramifications for significance testing. Third, we explain the perils of two-stage testing and data peeking. Finally, we explain that the violation of independence can easily lead to false positives.

KW - Bias

KW - Common method variance

KW - Correlation coefficient

KW - False positives

KW - Hypothesis testing

KW - Outliers

KW - Power

KW - Questionable research practices

KW - Response style

KW - Sample size

KW - Statistical significance

KW - t-test

KW - Test assumptions

KW - Type I errors

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DO - 10.1016/B978-0-08-102671-7.10665-7

M3 - Entry for encyclopedia/dictionary

VL - 7

SP - 87

EP - 95

BT - International Encyclopedia of Transportation

A2 - Vickerman, Roger

PB - Elsevier

ER -

Pitfalls of Statistical Methods in Traffic Psychology

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Pitfalls of Statistical Methods in Traffic Psychology

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