Policy Analysis, 1962-2012: From Predict And Act To Monitor And Adapt: Farewell Lecture, delivered on Wednesday, 19 October 2011 by Prof.dr. W.E. (Warren) Walker Professor of Policy Analysis At the Delft University of Technology Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management

Eleven years ago, on the 29th of November 2000, I gave my Inaugural speech as
a Professor of Policy Analysis at TU Delft. The speech was entitled “Uncertainty:
The Challenge for Policy Analysis in the 21st Century” (Walker, 2000b). Since that
time, I have been working with colleagues at TU Delft, RAND, and other organizations to develop ways to meet that challenge. Today, I want to share with you the fruits of this effort. But, to show you how far we have come, I will review the way that uncertainty as dealt with by operations researchers and policy analysts has evolved over time. I will explain the several dimensions and levels of uncertainty, and that different approaches are needed to deal with the different types. I will suggest that the deep uncertainties about the future that we are now facing require additional approaches. And I will describe one such new approach that seems sensible to apply to dealing with problems involving deep uncertainty.