Potential of commodity chemicals to become bio-based according to maximum yields and petrochemical prices

Carbohydrates are the prevailing biomass components available for bio-based production. The most direct way to convert carbohydrates into commodity chemicals is by one-step conversion at maximum theoretical yield, such as by anaerobic fermentation without side product formation. Considering these hypothetical yields and petrochemical prices in Europe in 2010–2014, a ranking of 58 commodity chemicals was made using a simple model with ethanol as a base case. It was concluded that base chemicals such as lower olefins and benzene-toluene-xylene (BTX) are too cheap and require too much carbohydrate to be produced competitively compared to bioethanol. However, more oxidized products that require multiple conversion steps in petrochemical production, such as adipic acid, acrylic acid, acrylate esters, and 1,4-butanediol, can be produced competitively from carbohydrates if theoretical yields are approached and if processing is efficient. Instead of carbohydrate fermentation, hypothetical photochemical production from CO₂ was also considered. Using again a simple model, the same commodity chemicals remained the most attractive ones.