Predicting arrival time uncertainty from actual flight information

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volumeConference contributionScientificpeer-review

25 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Air traffic control uses Arrival Managers (AMANs) to schedule an inbound stream of aircraft. As these systems use predicted arrival times to optimize the planning for capacity and flight efficiency, the accuracy of these predictions is an important parameter in arrival planning. While prediction capabilities have improved, and are likely to improve more, it is unlikely that prediction error will disappear altogether. Especially in future scenarios with longer planning horizons, techniques will have to be found to support planning in the presence of prediction uncertainty. To enable working with uncertainty on a predicted arrival time, that uncertainty needs to be predicted itself. This paper proposes and tests a method to predict arrival time uncertainty based on historic prediction accuracy using currently available arrival time estimates.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 11th USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar, ATM 2015
PublisherEurocontrol
Publication statusPublished - 2015
Event11th USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar - Lisbon, Portugal
Duration: 23 Jun 201526 Jun 2015
Conference number: 11

Conference

Conference11th USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar
Abbreviated titleATM 2015
CountryPortugal
CityLisbon
Period23/06/1526/06/15

Keywords

  • Air Traffic Control
  • Arrival Manager
  • Arrival Time Uncertainty
  • Queue Management
  • Trajectory Prediction

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Predicting arrival time uncertainty from actual flight information'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this