Predicting population exclusion for services dependent on mobile digital interfaces

Mobile services accessible solely via digital interfaces are becoming increasingly common. This may result in the exclusion of many potential users because they lack the access to the required digital technologies, the capability to operate the interfaces or the attitudes for successful technology engagement. This paper focuses on the issue of access as a first step in understanding this exclusion. Analysis from a recent population-representative survey in Germany (n=1010) provides a baseline exclusion prediction for mobile services with different technology requirements, for example a service that requires the user to install an app on a smartphone versus or a service that provides information via a website on a smartphone. The analysis has been carried out on the whole population and on selected groups that are potentially at greater risk of being excluded from these services, such as those over the age of 65, women and those with low educational achievement. The results suggest that services that only offer access via an app, which needs installation on a mobile device, can exclude significant numbers of potential users.