Predicting rainfall induced slope stability using Random Forest regression and synthetic data

Elahe Jamalinia, Faraz Sadeghi Tehrani, Susan Steele-Dunne, Phil Vardon

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volumeConference contributionScientificpeer-review

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Abstract

Water fluxes in slopes are affected by climatic conditions and vegetation cover, which influence the effective stress and stability. The vegetation cover is the intermediate layer between the atmosphere and the slope surface that alter water balance in the slope through evapotranspiration and leaf interception. This paper studies the datadriven approach for predicting the macro stability of an example grass-covered dike based on actual data and also synthetic data provided by numerical modelling. Two numerical models are integrated in this study. The water balance in the root zone is simulated through a crop model, whereas the hydro-mechanical and safety analysis of the example dike is done using a two-dimensional Finite Element model. The considered period for these analyses is 10 years (3650 daily instances) which will be used to generate a time-series dataset for a secondary dike in The Netherlands. The features included in the dataset are parameters that (i) have a meaningful relationship with the dike Factor of safety (FoS), and (ii) can be observed using satellite remote sensing. The output dataset is used to train a Random Forest regressor as a supervised Machine Learning (ML) algorithm. The results of this proof-of-concept study indicate a strong correlation between the numerically estimated FoS and the MLpredicted one. Therefore, it can be suggested that the utilized parameters can be used in a data-driven predictive tool to identify vulnerable zones along a dike without a need for running expensive numerical simulations.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationUnderstanding and Reducing Landslide Disaster Risk.
Subtitle of host publicationVolume 6. Specific Topics in Landslide Science and Applications
EditorsŽ. Arbanas , P.T. Bobrowsky , K. Konagai , K. Sassa , K. Takara
Place of PublicationKyoto, Japan
PublisherSpringer
Pages223-229
Number of pages7
Volume6
ISBN (Electronic)978-3-030-60713-5
ISBN (Print)978-3-030-60712-8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2020
Event5th World Landslide Forum: Implementing and Monitoring the Sendai Landslide Partnerships 2015-2025 - Kyoto, Japan
Duration: 2 Nov 20206 Nov 2020
https://wlf5.iplhq.org/

Conference

Conference5th World Landslide Forum
Country/TerritoryJapan
CityKyoto
Period2/11/206/11/20
Internet address

Bibliographical note

Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.

Keywords

  • Slope Stability
  • Vegetation
  • machine learning (ML)

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