Predicting subsurface stratigraphy using an improved Coupled Markov Chain method

Divya Varkey; Abraham P. van den Eijnden; Michael A. Hicks

Predicting subsurface stratigraphy using an improved Coupled Markov Chain method

Divya Varkey, Abraham P. van den Eijnden, Michael A. Hicks

Geo-engineering

Research output: Contribution to conference › Paper › peer-review

27 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Geological uncertainty can significantly influence the computed response of a geotechnical structure. For example, ignoring the presence of a weak soil layer embedded within a stronger layer and assuming a deterministic stratigraphic boundary can significantly underestimate the probability of failure. In this paper, the coupled Markov chain method has been used for modelling this form of uncertainty. A strategy for estimating the horizontal transition probability matrix with limited data has been proposed, which is one of the biggest challenges with using this method. In particular, different sampling intervals in the vertical and horizontal directions have been considered in estimating the matrix for simulating realistic field situations. The applicability of the proposed method has been demonstrated using a set of CPTs in the Netherlands. The results highlight a problem that arises due to the coupling algorithm used in this method.

Original language	English
Number of pages	7
Publication status	Published - 2023
Event	14th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering 2023 - Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland Duration: 9 Jul 2023 → 13 Jul 2023 https://icasp14.com/

Conference

Conference	14th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering 2023
Abbreviated title	ICASP14
Country/Territory	Ireland
City	Dublin
Period	9/07/23 → 13/07/23
Internet address	https://icasp14.com/

Access to Document

Predicting subsurface stratigraphy using an improved Coupled Markov Chain methodFinal published version, 685 KBLicence: CC BY-NC-SA

http://hdl.handle.net/2262/103399

Cite this

@conference{22d85150cadf41448450234f4686e5e7,

title = "Predicting subsurface stratigraphy using an improved Coupled Markov Chain method",

abstract = "Geological uncertainty can significantly influence the computed response of a geotechnical structure. For example, ignoring the presence of a weak soil layer embedded within a stronger layer and assuming a deterministic stratigraphic boundary can significantly underestimate the probability of failure. In this paper, the coupled Markov chain method has been used for modelling this form of uncertainty. A strategy for estimating the horizontal transition probability matrix with limited data has been proposed, which is one of the biggest challenges with using this method. In particular, different sampling intervals in the vertical and horizontal directions have been considered in estimating the matrix for simulating realistic field situations. The applicability of the proposed method has been demonstrated using a set of CPTs in the Netherlands. The results highlight a problem that arises due to the coupling algorithm used in this method.",

author = "Divya Varkey and {van den Eijnden}, {Abraham P.} and Hicks, {Michael A.}",

year = "2023",

language = "English",

note = "14th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering 2023, ICASP14 ; Conference date: 09-07-2023 Through 13-07-2023",

url = "https://icasp14.com/",

}

TY - CONF

T1 - Predicting subsurface stratigraphy using an improved Coupled Markov Chain method

AU - Varkey, Divya

AU - van den Eijnden, Abraham P.

AU - Hicks, Michael A.

PY - 2023

Y1 - 2023

N2 - Geological uncertainty can significantly influence the computed response of a geotechnical structure. For example, ignoring the presence of a weak soil layer embedded within a stronger layer and assuming a deterministic stratigraphic boundary can significantly underestimate the probability of failure. In this paper, the coupled Markov chain method has been used for modelling this form of uncertainty. A strategy for estimating the horizontal transition probability matrix with limited data has been proposed, which is one of the biggest challenges with using this method. In particular, different sampling intervals in the vertical and horizontal directions have been considered in estimating the matrix for simulating realistic field situations. The applicability of the proposed method has been demonstrated using a set of CPTs in the Netherlands. The results highlight a problem that arises due to the coupling algorithm used in this method.

AB - Geological uncertainty can significantly influence the computed response of a geotechnical structure. For example, ignoring the presence of a weak soil layer embedded within a stronger layer and assuming a deterministic stratigraphic boundary can significantly underestimate the probability of failure. In this paper, the coupled Markov chain method has been used for modelling this form of uncertainty. A strategy for estimating the horizontal transition probability matrix with limited data has been proposed, which is one of the biggest challenges with using this method. In particular, different sampling intervals in the vertical and horizontal directions have been considered in estimating the matrix for simulating realistic field situations. The applicability of the proposed method has been demonstrated using a set of CPTs in the Netherlands. The results highlight a problem that arises due to the coupling algorithm used in this method.

M3 - Paper

T2 - 14th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering 2023

Y2 - 9 July 2023 through 13 July 2023

ER -

Predicting subsurface stratigraphy using an improved Coupled Markov Chain method

Abstract

Conference

Access to Document

Fingerprint

Cite this