Predictive Aircraft Maintenance: Modeling and Analysis Using Stochastic Petri Nets

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volumeConference contributionScientificpeer-review


Predictive aircraft maintenance is a complex process, which requires the modeling of the stochastic degradation of aircraft systems, as well as the dynamic interactions between the stakeholders involved. In this paper, we show that the stochastically and dynamically colored Petri nets (SDCPNs) are able to formalize the predictive aircraft maintenance process. We model the aircraft maintenance stakeholders and their interactions using local SDCPNs. The degradation of the aircraft systems is also modeled using local SDCPNs where tokens change their colors according to a stochastic process. These SDCPN models are integrated into a unifying SDCPN model of the entire aircraft maintenance process. We illustrate our approach for the maintenance of multi-component systems with k-out-of-n redundancy. Using SDCPNs and Monte Carlo simulation, we analyze the number of maintenance tasks and potential degradation incidents that the system is expected to undergo when using a remaining useful life(RUL)-based predictive maintenance strategy. We compare the performance of this predictive maintenance strategy against other maintenance strategies that rely on fixed-interval inspection tasks to schedule component replacements. The results show that by conducting RUL-based predictive maintenance, the number of unscheduled maintenance tasks and degradation incidents is significantly reduced.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference
EditorsBruno Castanier, Marko Cepin, David Bigaud, Christophe Berenguer
Number of pages8
ISBN (Electronic)978-981-18-2016-8
Publication statusPublished - 2021
Event31st European Safety and Reliability Conference - Angers, France
Duration: 19 Sep 202123 Sep 2021


Conference31st European Safety and Reliability Conference
Abbreviated titleESREL 2021


  • Aircraft maintenance
  • Predictive maintenance
  • Stochastic Petri nets
  • Reliability
  • Modeling
  • Simulation


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