Predictive models for COVID-19: an Earth science response

In February and March 2020 most European countries were confronted with the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The Dutch Outbreak Management Team (OMT) and hospitals were in urgent need of forecasts that could help prepare for the increasing number of patients requiring ICU beds and that could also assess the effect of government measures to limit virus transmission. In the early stages of the outbreak, earth scientists from TNO and TU Delft both recognised the possibilities to apply Earth-science-based modelling expertise for these challenges. The two teams, working independently, both developed models to forecast the outbreak in different countries and to assess the effectiveness of social distancing measures