Preliminary uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the Molten Salt Fast Reactor steady-state using a Polynomial Chaos Expansion method

In this work, we present the results of a preliminary uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis study of the Molten Salt Fast Reactor (MSFR) behavior at steady-state performed by applying a non-intrusive Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) approach. An in-house high-fidelity multi-physics simulation tool is used as reactor reference model. Considering several thermal-hydraulics and neutronics parameters as stochastic inputs, with a limited number of samples we build a PCE meta-model able to reproduce he reactor response in terms of effective multiplication factor, maximum, minimum, and average salt temperatures, and complete salt temperature distribution. The probability density functions of the responses are constructed and analyzed, highlighting strengths and issues of the current MSFR design. The sensitivity study highlights the relative importance of each input parameter, thus providing useful indications for future research efforts. The analysis on the whole temperature field shows that the heat exchanger can be a critical component, so its design requires particular care.