Probabilistic assessments of flood defence performance subject to induced seismicity

Ruben Jongejan, Vasileios Drosos, Amalia Giannakou, Jacob Chacko, Panagiota Tasiopoulou, Nelleke Zuideveld-Venema, Sjoerd de Wit, Hans Huissoon

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)


Gas extraction in the Groningen Province in the Netherlands has caused seismicity. A method was needed for probabilistic assessments of the seismic performance of the levees that protect low-lying polders against flooding. By combining the First Order Reliability Method with response surfaces it proved possible to strongly reduce the required number of simulations with advanced numerical models to obtain reliable failure probability estimates. To illustrate the workings of the method, an application to a levee cross-section along the Eemscanal with a sheet pile wall is presented. The probabilistic method can be used for probabilistic assessments and the probability-based calibration of partial factors, and it could serve as a starting point for quantitative risk analyses for levee systems in earthquake prone regions.

Original languageEnglish
Number of pages21
JournalBulletin of Earthquake Engineering
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 2018


  • Flood-control levees
  • FORM
  • Geotechnical earthquake engineering
  • Probabilistic analysis
  • Response surfaces

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    Jongejan, R., Drosos, V., Giannakou, A., Chacko, J., Tasiopoulou, P., Zuideveld-Venema, N., de Wit, S., & Huissoon, H. (2018). Probabilistic assessments of flood defence performance subject to induced seismicity. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering.