Quantitative assessment of monitoring strategies for conformance verification of CO2 storage projects

E. G.D. Barros*, O. Leeuwenburgh, S. P. Szklarz

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

Abstract

We propose a quantitative model-based workflow for conformance verification of CO2 storage projects. Bayesian inference is applied to update an ensemble of simulation models that capture prior uncertainty based on mismatches with measured data. Conformance assessments are derived by comparison of updated model predictions with storage permit requirements and confidence criteria. Two examples, one conceptual and one based on a real candidate storage site, are provided in which the quantitative workflow is applied to the a priori assessment of candidate monitoring strategies. The examples illustrate the limitations of pressure monitoring in the presence of realistic subsurface uncertainties, and the potential for cost saving by informed design of geophysical monitoring surveys. Approximate methods are discussed that could make the workflow also applicable for (quasi) real-time conformance monitoring.

Original languageEnglish
Article number103403
Pages (from-to)1-18
Number of pages18
JournalInternational Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control
Volume110
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021

Keywords

  • Conformance verification
  • Monitoring design
  • Quantitative workflow
  • Risk management
  • Subsurface CO2 storage
  • Uncertainty management

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