TY - JOUR
T1 - Quantitative assessment of wildfire risk in oil facilities
AU - Khakzad, Nima
AU - Dadashzadeh, Mohammad
AU - Reniers, Genserik
PY - 2018
Y1 - 2018
N2 - Despite frequent occurrence of wildfires around the world, the role of wildfires has rarely been taken into account in risk assessment of process plants in wildlands, especially that large inventory of flammable petroleum products in contact with the heat of wildfire can lead to severe domino effects. We have developed a dynamic risk assessment framework by integrating available models of fire spread and domino effect analysis with online maps of wildfire characteristics such as ignition probability and heat intensity to investigate the impact of wildfires on oil facilities. The framework is modular, so one can readily enhance its accuracy by replacing the current techniques with more sophisticated ones. The application of the methodology is demonstrated on an oil terminal.
AB - Despite frequent occurrence of wildfires around the world, the role of wildfires has rarely been taken into account in risk assessment of process plants in wildlands, especially that large inventory of flammable petroleum products in contact with the heat of wildfire can lead to severe domino effects. We have developed a dynamic risk assessment framework by integrating available models of fire spread and domino effect analysis with online maps of wildfire characteristics such as ignition probability and heat intensity to investigate the impact of wildfires on oil facilities. The framework is modular, so one can readily enhance its accuracy by replacing the current techniques with more sophisticated ones. The application of the methodology is demonstrated on an oil terminal.
KW - Cost-benefit analysis
KW - Domino effect
KW - Dynamic Bayesian network
KW - Natech risk assessment
KW - Oil terminal
KW - Wildfire
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85048933560&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.06.062
DO - 10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.06.062
M3 - Article
C2 - 29957417
SN - 0301-4797
VL - 223
SP - 433
EP - 443
JO - Journal of Environmental Management
JF - Journal of Environmental Management
ER -