Recovery time and propagation effects of passenger transport disruptions

Caterina Malandri*, Achille Fonzone, Oded Cats

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

14 Citations (Scopus)
18 Downloads (Pure)


We propose a method to evaluate public transport network vulnerability. We study the evolution of the passenger Volume Over Capacity (VOC) ratio throughout the network to measure the spatial and temporal extent of the impacts caused by an unplanned service segment disruption. The VOC ratio provides an indication of the on-board travel comfort, an important level-of-service indicator, as well as reflects the residual capacity for absorbing additional demand. Because of the dynamic nature of public transport systems, disturbances propagate through the network in both time and space. Our modelling approach is able to capture transit system dynamics and quantify the extent to which the network exhibits spillover effects. We apply the method to the case of the rapid public transport system of Stockholm Sweden We demonstrate how the changes in network saturation and the corresponding recovery time can be quantified.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)7-17
Number of pages11
JournalPhysica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
Publication statusPublished - 1 Sep 2018

Bibliographical note

Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.


  • Flow propagation
  • Public transport
  • Recovery
  • Spillover
  • Vulnerability


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