Reliability Analysis of the Ancient Nezahualcoyotl's Dike: Investigating Failure Due to Overflow Using an Improved Hydrological Model

M.A. Mendoza Lugo; Gina Alexandra Torres Alves; Oswaldo Morales Nápoles

doi:10.3850/978-981-18-8071-1_p279-cd

Reliability Analysis of the Ancient Nezahualcoyotl's Dike: Investigating Failure Due to Overflow Using an Improved Hydrological Model

M.A. Mendoza Lugo, Gina Alexandra Torres Alves, Oswaldo Morales Nápoles

Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volume › Conference contribution › Scientific › peer-review

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Abstract

Investigating the reliability of ancient hydraulic structures constructed without modern probabilistic criteria allows an understanding of why and how the structure fails. In this paper, we present an extended method, firstly introduced by Torres-Alves and Morales-Nápoles (2020), to perform the reliability analysis of the Nezahualcoyotl's dike that was designed (most likely) without probabilistic criteria. The dike was built around 1450 by the Aztec empire dividing Lake Texcoco from north to south (present-day Mexico City). We estimate the probability of failure due to overflow. By using a discrete time-state Markov chain and bi-variate copulas to generate large synthetic observations of the environmental variables precipitation and evaporation. In addition to the previous methodology, two sources of uncertainty were taken into account (i) the characterization of the environmental conditions during the dry season to estimate initial water levels on the lake and (ii) the influence of surface runoff and subsurface seepage losses on the water levels. The extended method allows for better characterization of the lacustrine system. Therefore an improved extent of the hydrology of the system and a more reliable estimation of the probability of failure of Nezahualcoyotl's dike are presented.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings of the 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference
Editors	Mário P. Brito, Terje Aven, Piero Baraldi, Marko Čepin, Enrico Zio
Publisher	Research Publishing
Pages	396-403
Number of pages	8
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-8071-1_p279-cd
Publication status	Published - 2023
Event	The 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2023): The Future od Safety in a Reconnected World - University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom Duration: 3 Sept 2023 → 7 Sept 2023 https://www.esrel2023.com/

Conference

Conference	The 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2023)
Abbreviated title	ESREL 2023
Country/Territory	United Kingdom
City	Southampton
Period	3/09/23 → 7/09/23
Internet address	https://www.esrel2023.com/

Bibliographical note

Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care
Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.

Keywords

Dike
copulas
Markov chains
water budget

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10.3850/978-981-18-8071-1_p279-cd

A copula-based Bayesian Network to model wave climate multivariate uncertainty in the Alboran seaFinal published version, 1.56 MB

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Mendoza Lugo, M. A., Torres Alves, G. A., & Morales Nápoles, O. (2023). Reliability Analysis of the Ancient Nezahualcoyotl's Dike: Investigating Failure Due to Overflow Using an Improved Hydrological Model. In M. P. Brito, T. Aven, P. Baraldi, M. Čepin, & E. Zio (Eds.), Proceedings of the 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference (pp. 396-403). Article P279 Research Publishing. https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-8071-1_p279-cd

Mendoza Lugo, M.A. ; Torres Alves, Gina Alexandra ; Morales Nápoles, Oswaldo. / Reliability Analysis of the Ancient Nezahualcoyotl's Dike : Investigating Failure Due to Overflow Using an Improved Hydrological Model. Proceedings of the 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference. editor / Mário P. Brito ; Terje Aven ; Piero Baraldi ; Marko Čepin ; Enrico Zio. Research Publishing, 2023. pp. 396-403

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title = "Reliability Analysis of the Ancient Nezahualcoyotl's Dike: Investigating Failure Due to Overflow Using an Improved Hydrological Model",

abstract = "Investigating the reliability of ancient hydraulic structures constructed without modern probabilistic criteria allows an understanding of why and how the structure fails. In this paper, we present an extended method, firstly introduced by Torres-Alves and Morales-N{\'a}poles (2020), to perform the reliability analysis of the Nezahualcoyotl's dike that was designed (most likely) without probabilistic criteria. The dike was built around 1450 by the Aztec empire dividing Lake Texcoco from north to south (present-day Mexico City). We estimate the probability of failure due to overflow. By using a discrete time-state Markov chain and bi-variate copulas to generate large synthetic observations of the environmental variables precipitation and evaporation. In addition to the previous methodology, two sources of uncertainty were taken into account (i) the characterization of the environmental conditions during the dry season to estimate initial water levels on the lake and (ii) the influence of surface runoff and subsurface seepage losses on the water levels. The extended method allows for better characterization of the lacustrine system. Therefore an improved extent of the hydrology of the system and a more reliable estimation of the probability of failure of Nezahualcoyotl's dike are presented. ",

keywords = "Dike, copulas, Markov chains, water budget",

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Mendoza Lugo, MA , Torres Alves, GA & Morales Nápoles, O 2023, Reliability Analysis of the Ancient Nezahualcoyotl's Dike: Investigating Failure Due to Overflow Using an Improved Hydrological Model. in MP Brito, T Aven, P Baraldi, M Čepin & E Zio (eds), Proceedings of the 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference., P279, Research Publishing, pp. 396-403, The 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2023), Southampton, United Kingdom, 3/09/23. https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-8071-1_p279-cd

Reliability Analysis of the Ancient Nezahualcoyotl's Dike: Investigating Failure Due to Overflow Using an Improved Hydrological Model. / Mendoza Lugo, M.A.; Torres Alves, Gina Alexandra ; Morales Nápoles, Oswaldo.
Proceedings of the 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference. ed. / Mário P. Brito; Terje Aven; Piero Baraldi; Marko Čepin; Enrico Zio. Research Publishing, 2023. p. 396-403 P279.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volume › Conference contribution › Scientific › peer-review

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AU - Morales Nápoles, Oswaldo

N1 - Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.

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AB - Investigating the reliability of ancient hydraulic structures constructed without modern probabilistic criteria allows an understanding of why and how the structure fails. In this paper, we present an extended method, firstly introduced by Torres-Alves and Morales-Nápoles (2020), to perform the reliability analysis of the Nezahualcoyotl's dike that was designed (most likely) without probabilistic criteria. The dike was built around 1450 by the Aztec empire dividing Lake Texcoco from north to south (present-day Mexico City). We estimate the probability of failure due to overflow. By using a discrete time-state Markov chain and bi-variate copulas to generate large synthetic observations of the environmental variables precipitation and evaporation. In addition to the previous methodology, two sources of uncertainty were taken into account (i) the characterization of the environmental conditions during the dry season to estimate initial water levels on the lake and (ii) the influence of surface runoff and subsurface seepage losses on the water levels. The extended method allows for better characterization of the lacustrine system. Therefore an improved extent of the hydrology of the system and a more reliable estimation of the probability of failure of Nezahualcoyotl's dike are presented.

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KW - Markov chains

KW - water budget

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DO - 10.3850/978-981-18-8071-1_p279-cd

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Mendoza Lugo MA , Torres Alves GA , Morales Nápoles O. Reliability Analysis of the Ancient Nezahualcoyotl's Dike: Investigating Failure Due to Overflow Using an Improved Hydrological Model. In Brito MP, Aven T, Baraldi P, Čepin M, Zio E, editors, Proceedings of the 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference. Research Publishing. 2023. p. 396-403. P279 doi: 10.3850/978-981-18-8071-1_p279-cd

Reliability Analysis of the Ancient Nezahualcoyotl's Dike: Investigating Failure Due to Overflow Using an Improved Hydrological Model

Abstract

Conference

Bibliographical note

Keywords

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