TY - JOUR
T1 - Reliability assessment of ultra-deep oil and gas wellbore casing using data statistics and numerical simulations
AU - Yang, Shangyu
AU - Zhang, Renren
AU - Wang, Jianjun
AU - Li, Xinhong
AU - Fan, Heng
AU - Yang, Ming
N1 - Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.
PY - 2020
Y1 - 2020
N2 - Ultra-deep oil and gas wells have become a new development trend in onshore oil and gas exploitation. However, Ultra-deep oil and gas wellbore casing is with high failure risk due to the harsh environment. It is essential to evaluate the reliability of wellbore casing. This paper assesses the operational reliability of wellbore casing using data statistics and numerical simulation. Firstly, the theoretical model for reliability analysis of wellbore casing is established, and the variables in the model are determined, including rock mechanics, cement ring, and casing string strength factors. Subsequently, considering the random distribution of model variables, many statistics and analyses are performed to determine the distribution parameters of the model variables. Eventually, Monte Carlo based numerical simulations are carried out to obtain the residual strength distribution and the reliability of wellbore casing. The production casing in the ultra-deep well with a depth of 6.5 km in China as an industrial case is used to illustrate the present study. It is observed that this study can be useful to guide a more accurate assessment of the reliability of ultra-deep wellbore casing.
AB - Ultra-deep oil and gas wells have become a new development trend in onshore oil and gas exploitation. However, Ultra-deep oil and gas wellbore casing is with high failure risk due to the harsh environment. It is essential to evaluate the reliability of wellbore casing. This paper assesses the operational reliability of wellbore casing using data statistics and numerical simulation. Firstly, the theoretical model for reliability analysis of wellbore casing is established, and the variables in the model are determined, including rock mechanics, cement ring, and casing string strength factors. Subsequently, considering the random distribution of model variables, many statistics and analyses are performed to determine the distribution parameters of the model variables. Eventually, Monte Carlo based numerical simulations are carried out to obtain the residual strength distribution and the reliability of wellbore casing. The production casing in the ultra-deep well with a depth of 6.5 km in China as an industrial case is used to illustrate the present study. It is observed that this study can be useful to guide a more accurate assessment of the reliability of ultra-deep wellbore casing.
KW - Data statistics
KW - Monte-carlo
KW - Numerical model
KW - Reliability assessment
KW - Wellbore casing
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85098124076&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.jlp.2020.104369
DO - 10.1016/j.jlp.2020.104369
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85098124076
VL - 69
JO - Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries: the international journal of chemical and process plant safety
JF - Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries: the international journal of chemical and process plant safety
SN - 0950-4230
M1 - 104369
ER -