Reliability assessment of ultra-deep oil and gas wellbore casing using data statistics and numerical simulations

Shangyu Yang, Renren Zhang, Jianjun Wang, Xinhong Li, Heng Fan, Ming Yang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

Abstract

Ultra-deep oil and gas wells have become a new development trend in onshore oil and gas exploitation. However, Ultra-deep oil and gas wellbore casing is with high failure risk due to the harsh environment. It is essential to evaluate the reliability of wellbore casing. This paper assesses the operational reliability of wellbore casing using data statistics and numerical simulation. Firstly, the theoretical model for reliability analysis of wellbore casing is established, and the variables in the model are determined, including rock mechanics, cement ring, and casing string strength factors. Subsequently, considering the random distribution of model variables, many statistics and analyses are performed to determine the distribution parameters of the model variables. Eventually, Monte Carlo based numerical simulations are carried out to obtain the residual strength distribution and the reliability of wellbore casing. The production casing in the ultra-deep well with a depth of 6.5 km in China as an industrial case is used to illustrate the present study. It is observed that this study can be useful to guide a more accurate assessment of the reliability of ultra-deep wellbore casing.

Original languageEnglish
Article number104369
JournalJournal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries
Volume69
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2020

Keywords

  • Data statistics
  • Monte-carlo
  • Numerical model
  • Reliability assessment
  • Wellbore casing

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Reliability assessment of ultra-deep oil and gas wellbore casing using data statistics and numerical simulations'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this